New Zealand’s Consumers Price Index increased 3.1% in the 12 months to the March 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

This was higher than most economists’ estimates.

The increase follows a 3.1% increase in the 12 months to the previous December 2025 quarter.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target band for the annual inflation rate is 1-3%.

The largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was electricity, up 12.5%.

“Higher electricity prices accounted for more than a tenth of the 3.1% annual increase,” prices and deflators spokeswoman Nicola Growden said.

“This was the third quarter in a row that electricity was the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate.”

The data only included partial pricing impacts from the Middle East conflict, which began at the start of March.

Economists had expected the annual rate to land between 2.8% and 3.1%, effectively marking a low point before the oil shock fully took effect.

From here, many bank economists are picking the inflation rate to head to around 4%.

“Over 2026, we expect inflation to increase significantly and uncomfortably,” an ASB senior economist said last week.

More to come ...

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.