Today's inflation numbers could represent calm before the storm. 

Annual inflation's likely to have fallen in the first quarter of this year after ending last year at 3.1%.  

BNZ is picking 3.1%, KiwiBank's is picking 3%, ASB and ANZ are picking 2.9%, and Westpac is picking 2.8%. 

ASB Senior Economist Mark Smith told Ryan Bridge that the future trajectory is more important.  

He says the oil price outlook is highly uncertain, and how long energy prices hold up will really determine how long that inflation rate holds up as well. 

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