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Mike's Minute: When are we moving on from this Covid-19 mess?

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 7 Mar 2022, 10:01am

Mike's Minute: When are we moving on from this Covid-19 mess?

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 7 Mar 2022, 10:01am

Not that it wasn’t circus-like, but I think we have gone full tent and clown over the weekend.

15,000 cases yesterday down on the day before which was down on the day before that. Leading the media yet again to rush breathlessly to the nearest "expert” to seek guidance as to whether this thing had peaked.

Quite possibly, said one by the name of Michael Baker. Not sure. said another by the name of Michael Plank. And he especially said, probably for the 4 millionth time, that we must exercise caution.

Now that would have been fine because here is my point, most of us assume the real caseload is way higher than the official number.

But even at the official number, the number of people in hospital is the number to watch. Remember this is the reason we are having our lives curtailed and why I am watching the Crusaders with a crowd of no one. Because this is a tricky virus and we don’t want to overwhelm the health system.

So, at 23,000 cases, it was quite clear that well under one per cent of cases were in hospital. Assuming it wasn’t 23,000, 18,000, 19,000, or even 15,000, and it was way more, then that one per cent is actually much smaller.

A mile under one per cent of cases end up in hospital. Surely, it's at this point we can safely say this thing isn't an issue and let's seriously start to get some dates around mandates, passports, and rules and regulations getting dropped.

But then, wait. Chris Hipkins says the caseload could be 100,000 a day. What? Where did he get that from? Has he become a modeller?

I assume we should listen to him given he is the one at the pulpit of truth. So, at 100,000 a day, the number burdening our health system is so small you need a microscope.

Hence the call can safely go out again to move on. Drop rules and regulations, and most importantly of all, start telling people to stop being afraid. Tell people to go out, have some lunch, support a business, get back to the office, and resume normality.

Let's be honest, those figures are guesswork. When you're officially at 15,000, modellers don’t know whether you’ve peaked, and the Minister is making figures like 100,000 up, this thing has bolted, the stable doors have burst open, and it is what it is, it will be what it will be.

What I've worked out, using just a bit of common sense, an ingredient all too often missing, is that this thing is not going to swamp health. Very few, if any, will die of it, and we can mount a case that hysteria has been the main ingredient in the build-up.

This isn't a patch on what it was supposed to be. So, let's learn the lesson, sober up, and move on.