Te Tai Tokerau is shaping up to be an electorate to watch this election. 

MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi is splitting from Te Pāti Māori to form her own party after months of ructions between her and the party's leaders. 

She'll run in her electorate under a party of the same name.  

Former Māori Party Co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell told Mike Hosking she could win the seat as she has a foothold in an electorate already. 

But he says history is typically against smaller parties – particularly those wrapped around a single individual.  

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