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Budget 2026's surplus forecast may be a 'tad optimistic', economist says

Author
Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Fri, 29 May 2026, 8:36am
The Beehive, Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell
The Beehive, Wellington. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Budget 2026's surplus forecast may be a 'tad optimistic', economist says

Author
Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Fri, 29 May 2026, 8:36am

Most households may not see any immediate direct benefit from the Budget. 

It shows a return to surplus in the 2028/29 financial year, a year sooner than previously forecast. The forecast uses the OBEGALx measure, which excludes ACC.    

Infometrics Economist Brad Olsen says it might be a tad optimistic, given the state of the world, but we could maybe use some optimism. 

The Budget includes significant investment in education and training, which Olsen says should boost productivity. 

He told Mike Hosking it's an unusual Budget for an election year. 

Olsen says most households won't see anything directly, as the money's going on structural things that should make the economy stronger in the long run. 

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