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Hurricane Dorian death toll climbs as it heads for US coastline

Author
Newstalk ZB, Washington Post,
Publish Date
Thu, 5 Sep 2019, 4:38PM
Dorian is now pushing its way up the Southeastern U.S. coast, menacing Georgia and the Carolinas.

Hurricane Dorian death toll climbs as it heads for US coastline

Author
Newstalk ZB, Washington Post,
Publish Date
Thu, 5 Sep 2019, 4:38PM

Stronger and a little larger, Hurricane Dorian is gradually leaving Florida behind, setting its sights on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. These areas face a triple threat of "destructive winds, flooding rains, and life-threatening storm surges," according to the National Hurricane Center.

While Dorian has stayed far enough off the coast to largely spare Florida from the worst of its wrath, it is forecast to make a much closer approach to the coastline of the Carolinas between Wednesday night and Friday morning and could make landfall.

In addition, Dorian has gained some added strength, increasing the risk of storm hazards. Its maximum sustained winds are back up to 110 mph, 1 mph from a Category 3. And its wind field has continued to expand, with tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds covering more territory.

The storm is likely to buffet the entire South Carolina coastline Thursday and North Carolina through the first half of Friday.

Around Charleston, South Carolina, for example, wind gusts could hit 90 mph or so, and water levels could rank among the top five levels ever recorded due to the combination of ocean surge and up to 15 inches of rain. Higher wind gusts up to 100 mph or so could lash North Carolina's Outer Banks.

"Life threatening storm surge with significant coastal flooding is expected along a large portion of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days," the Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. advisory.

Power outages and wind damage are likely in many parts of the coastal Carolinas.

Even the Virginia Tidewater and southern Delmarva Peninsula could endure tropical storm conditions by Friday, after which the storm is expected to zoom away to the northeast.

Because the storm has grown larger, its strong winds cover a larger area, capable of generating giant waves and pushing large amounts of water toward the shore.

Coastal flooding due to storm surge is a risk from northeastern Florida to Southeast Virginia, where a storm-driven rise in water above normally dry land is predicted to reach betwen two and eight feet. Storm-surge warnings cover this entire zone.

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As of 8 p.m. Wednesday, the storm was 130 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina, moving north-northwest at eight mph.

The Hurricane Center wrote in its latest bulletin that "Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours." The storm's peak sustained winds are up to 110 mph, a 5 mph increase from earlier in the day, and the minimum central pressure has been dropping, making it a high-end Category 2 storm. In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm.

Dorian is expected to maintain its current intensity through Thursday, before a slow weakening trend begins. However, the Hurricane Center cautioned, "it is possible that Dorian could briefly regain major [Category 3] hurricane strength."

The storm has grown steadily larger since the weekend; hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. (Earlier Wednesday, hurricane-force winds extended outward 60 miles and tropical-storm-force winds 170 miles).

Radar showed Dorian's outer rain bands bringing heavy rain and gusty winds in the coastal zone from Daytona Beach, Florida, to southeastern North Carolina.

During the afternoon, weather stations in northeastern Florida along the coast reported sustained winds around 40 mph (which is tropical-storm-force) and gusts to about 55 mph. They began to extend into coastal Georgia and South Carolina, where gusts over 50 mph were reported.

In northeastern Florida, scenes from social media showed water due to storm surge running up to homes in Vilano Beach and flooding streets around St. Augustine.

Coastal flooding has spread farther north, with areas of high water reported in Charleston, South Carolina.

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Conditions are expected to continue deteriorating in coastal Georgia and South Carolina through Wednesday night. In North Carolina, it may take until Thursday morning for tropical storm conditions to commence, though gusty showers are already developing. Most of the storm effects in southeastern Virginia should hold off until late Thursday night or Friday morning.

The severity of Dorian's effects will be closely related to how closely Dorian tracks to the coast and whether it makes landfall. Most computer models now forecast the center of Dorian to come very close to the coast of South Carolina and to come ashore in North Carolina, with the highest chance over the Outer Banks.

Computer models generally project that the storm center should remain far enough off the coast of Georgia to limit winds to tropical-storm force (39 to 73 mph) and rainfall totals to two to four inches. Tropical storm warnings are in effect here.

In the coastal Carolinas, under hurricane warnings, sustained winds could reach 60 to 80 mph with gusts up to 100 mph, highest along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of five to 10 inches are predicted, and localized totals of up to 15 inches, meaning a high risk of flash flooding.

The Georgia and South Carolina coastlines are particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding, even from a storm that does not make landfall. The surge could reach three to five feet in Georgia and five to eight feet from the Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A surge of four to six feet is anticipated from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

Farther north, the possibility of a two-to-four-foot surge exists in Hampton Roads, Virginia.

"The combination of significant storm surge inundation and heavy rainfall will enhance the risk for flash flooding, especially along coast, including Downtown Charleston [South Carolina], portions of the Savannah Metro Area, and the nearby coastal communities," the National Weather Service office in Charleston wrote. "This is a dangerous situation and preparations should be rushed to completion today."

Depending on the timing of the maximum storm surge, Charleston could see this storm bring one of its top five water levels on record.

According to the National Weather Service office in Charleston, based on the present forecast track, the result could be particularly severe. Among the possible effects, it listed: "Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period."

Locations farther north from Virginia Beach to the southern Delmarva are expected to be scraped by the storm Friday and Friday night, with heavy rains, tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding. A tropical storm warning is in effect from the North Carolina-Virginia border to Chincoteague, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward, where three to six inches of rain are possible along with wind gusts up to 60 mph. The storm surge in this zone could reach to two to four feet above the normal high tide.

A tropical storm watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague, Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island. This area sits along the western edge of where significant wind and rain are possible and may or may not experience tropical-storm conditions.

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