By Caleb Fotheringham ofĀ RNZ
The Pacific is due to get a dramatic shift in weather over the next 12 months as it moves from a triple dip La NiƱa event to the opposite direction.
The region is forecast to experience anĀ El NiƱo event, while some scientists have already said it has started.
La NiƱa is the cooling phase whereas El NiƱo is the warming phase of the waters in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of South America.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said it means high levels of rainfall is likely for some places like Kiribati - that has been in a long drought - while parts of the western Pacific like Papua New Guinea should be dryer than normal.
āThe patterns that weāve experienced the last three years are probably not a good indication of the types of patterns in terms of rainfall and temperatures that we would expect to see in the coming say six to 12 months,ā Noll said.
He said there is also a higher chance of more cyclones in the southwest Pacific, with the risk increasing east of Fiji but reducing in the west.
This map shows the converse rainfall New Zealand traditionally receives in El NiƱo and La NiƱa events. Image / Niwa
Cyclone Winston, which was the most intense tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere on record, hit Fiji in Feburary 2016 during an El NiƱo event.
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Ā āWe tend to see a higher number and in fact, in 1997/98, that was the most active tropical cyclone season in modern records for the southwest Pacific.
āThat was a strong El NiƱo and there are some similarities with the developing El NiƱo,ā he said.
Good news and bad for Kiribati
In June 2022, the Kiribati Government declared a state of disaster due to the drought.
Kiribati Meteorological Service director Uneta Tooiua said the country has experienced below normal rainfall since mid-2020 - a symptom of La NiƱa.
āIt is quite a long period of time and the impact of the drought is quite severe throughout the country, affecting quite a number of communities on the islands.ā
RNZ Pacific reported in March that in Arorae, Kiribati well water, which people drink, was becoming brackish and the tops of coconut trees were falling off.
Ā āEl NiƱo means good news in terms of the drought,ā Tooiua said.
āBut in terms of storms itās more likely that there will be more severe storms affecting Kiribati during the El NiƱo event.ā
Palau on the east side of the tropical Pacific can expect very dry conditions.
Staff meteorologist at the Palau National Weather Service, Kikuko Mochimaru, said El NiƱo is a concern.
ā[In] 2015/16 and also 1997/98 were both strong El NiƱoās and for the 2015 event which I was a witness to we did have a severe drought.ā
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