Labour and Chris Hipkins crash in latest poll, gap with National widest since 2017

Author: Thomas Coughlan, NZ Herald,
Publish Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2023, 12:25PM

Labour’s support has crashed to its lowest point in at least four years in the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, tumbling five points to 31 per cent, its lowest rating in that poll since at least 2019.

National rose one point to 36 per cent, as did likely governing partner Act which is on 12 per cent.

The Greens are up one point too, on 8 per cent.

Commentary released with the poll said it is the first time National has been ahead of Labour by five points or more. It is also the first time the centre-right has been ahead of the centre-left by five points or more since the 2017 election.

Te Pati Maori scored 4.2 per cent, NZ First was on 4 per cent, and TOP was on 2.9 per cent.

The bad news did not stop there for Labour, with leader Chris Hipkins tumbling six points to 32 per cent in the Preferred Prime Minister poll.

A fall that large is bad news for Labour, but National leader Christopher Luxon was unable to capitalise on Hipkins’ malaise. His preferred prime minister polling was still 11 points behind Hipkins on 21 per cent, down one point on the last poll.

Talbot Mills contacted 1036 people between June 28 and July 2. The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The poll is produced for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients. The company also conducts Labour’s internal poll.

The poll took place after a torrid month for Labour in which it lost one minister, Michael Wood, and weathered allegations about another, Kiri Allan, who is reported to have yelled at people in her office.

The commentary released with the poll said that “after a long period of very close results, we may now be seeing the long expected breakout of the centre-right. The next few polls will tell.

“The centre-left had seemed to have been defying the political gravity of a generally negative mood; the acute political pressures stemming from cost of living rises and cascading ministerial scandals”.

Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.