There are concerns the education sector could face a renewed teacher shortage as New Zealand's borders open. 

At the start of the pandemic, many teachers returned to New Zealand from overseas, aiding the staffing shortage at the time. 

But a sector leader believes there's been an "artificial inflation" in the shortage being solved with Covid-19, meaning fewer teachers are leaving. 

National MP Erica Stanford broached the issue with Education Minister Chris Hipkins at the Education and Workforce Committee Ministry of Education annual review yesterday. 

She asked what analysis has been done on the "potential exodus" of numbers of young teachers leaving as borders open and what plans are underway to combat it. 

Hipkins said it's very hard to model and there's been a record high retention rate in the last two years, including people who may have otherwise retired staying on, and younger teachers sticking around for longer. 

There's a tradition of young people going overseas, some working holiday visas have age limits so people may feel compelled to go now, and New Zealand teachers are in hot demand, he said. 

Hipkins said they don't know how many teachers will leave and how many currently overseas will come back – but there has been an increase in the number of teachers training, a focus for the Government. 

Near the start of 2020 there was a "flood of teachers" returning from abroad, New Zealand Principals' Federation National President Dr Cherie Taylor-Patel said. 

"At that time, particularly in our bigger cities, we had a real crisis, a real shortage of teachers. They actually made up the shortfall of teachers at that time. 

"The dilemma now is that as people start looking again to go back overseas and to finish that OE perhaps, we are going to again see that shortage exacerbated." 

Patel-Taylor said while it's not a crisis yet, it is starting to "creep up". 

Melanie Webber, president of PPTA Te Wehengarua, believes it's not happening yet, possibly due to two-month resignation periods – but is a concern. 

"We've had an artificial inflation of a fixing of our teaching shortage, more because we haven't been losing teachers during Covid in the same way." 

Melanie Webber is president of the Post Primary Teachers Association (PPTA). Photo / Supplied 

But Webber said they know from an Education Review Office report late last year that younger teachers have been struggling during the pandemic and as the future of the workforce, they're worried about where they'll go. 

She said they're concerned about teachers who returned to Aotearoa going back overseas and two years' worth of teachers who would normally do an overseas experience moving at once. 

But it's not just young people. 

Older teachers may decide it's no longer safe to teach in the classroom or may want to retire and travel, having put it off for two years, Webber said. 

Webber sees it as an opportunity to improve the issues teachers face. 

Workload – particularly at present where some teachers have to operate a hybrid, in-person online model is a concern, as are class sizes and how the job here compares to overseas, Webber said. 

"We know that the contact hours are higher for New Zealand teachers and we know that we get paid a lot less than in Australia. 

"Those are all things that our teachers will be looking at and as the borders open up again, we'll start to see a pressure on our system." 

Taylor-Patel agrees that people need to be attracted to the profession and retained. 

Younger teachers need to be looked after with ongoing learning opportunities and support, she said. 

And she said it also comes back to pay – often people go to countries where they're paid more. 

- by Shannon Johnstone, NZ Herald