An independent economist says New Zealand's in good shape to avoid a recession.

There's concern a severe downturn is looming in the United States, with the yield curves briefly dipping below zero - a historical precursor to recession.

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says New Zealand relies on the global economy, where there are always risks - like trade tensions between the US and China.

"Those risks were pretty elevated around the middle of 2019. As we moved over the latter part of 2019, some of those risks have dissipated a little bit."

However, he told Tim Dower despite New Zealand's reliance on the global economy, our own is in good nick.

"The Reserve Bank cut interest rates, and of course the Government is spending a hell of a lot of money in 2019, 2020, it's probably just about the right time."