As we head into the final three weeks of Super Rugby’s regular season, there are still eight teams that could fill out the five playoff spots available to the Australasian Group.

Sure the Blues and Rebels require the sporting equivalent of an act of god, but as Leicester City, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Iceland have all shown us recently, anything is possible in this wonderfully unpredictable wee beastie we call “sport”.

So here’s what faces each of franchises that are in the mix, those on the fringes and those requiring the aforementioned divine assistance.

CRUSADERS

Points: 45

Position: 1^st in Australasian Group & 1^st in NZ Conference

Remaining games: Chiefs in Suva; Rebels in Christchurch & Hurricanes in Christchurch

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 63.9% (4^th)

Opinion: Those two home games to finish will be massive for Todd Blackadder’s men.

It’ll be a tough old go in Suva this Friday night against a team that’s had their number in recent times and while the Rebels & Hurricanes have also had success playing in the Garden City, this Crusaders team will close out strong to secure top spot in the Trans-Tasman group and Kiwi conference.

Predictions: BP loss vs. Chiefs (1pt); BP win vs. Rebels (5pts); Win vs. Hurricanes (4pts)

Final Points: 55

Final Position: 1^st in Australasian Group & 1^st in NZ Conference

BRUMBIES

Points: 34

Position: 2^nd in Australasian Group & 1^st in Australian Conference

Remaining games: Reds in Canberra; Blues in Auckland & Force in Canberra

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 33.3% (13^th)

Opinion: The Brumbies will saddle up and smash the Reds & Force in their nation’s capital so it all comes down to the Blues match in Auckland … which they choke away like Greg Norman at The Masters in 1996, thus missing the playoffs.

Prediction: BP win vs. Reds (5pts); BP loss vs. Blues (1pt); BP win vs. Force (5pts)

Final Points: 45

Final Position: 6^th in Australasian Group & 2^nd in Australian conference

CHIEFS

Points: 42

Position: 3^rd in Australasian Group & 2^nd in NZ Conference

Remaining games: Crusaders in Suva; Reds in Brisbane & Highlanders in Dunedin

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 59.7% (8^th)

Opinion: Dave Rennie’s men will find a way to undo the Crusaders (again) but suffer a week later as they rest Sam Cane & Brodie Retallick and fail to secure a much needed bonus point in a battling win in Brisbane.

The final game of the regular season will be another spiteful, niggly but totally epic encounter with their nemesis the Highlanders in the Glass House, in which they come up short (again); a loss that sees them drop to 3^rd in the NZ conference on points differential.

Prediction: Win vs. Crusaders (4pts); win vs. Reds (4pts); BP loss vs. Highlanders (1pt)

Final Points: 51

Final Position: 4^th in Australasian Group & 3^rd in NZ Conference

HURRICANES

Points: 40

Position: 4^th in Australasian Group & 3^rd in NZ Conference

Remaining games: Blues in Wellington; Waratahs in Sydney & Crusaders in Christchurch

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 65.3% (3^rd)

Opinion: All three of the Canes remaining opponents have winning records (yes even the Blues have more wins than losses) hence have by far the toughest run home.

They’ll account for the Blues in another close NZ derby and then secure the final playoff spot despite back-to-back losses to the Waratahs and Crusaders; the bonus points earned in each of those defeats sneaking them in ahead of the Brumbies.

Predictions: Win vs. Blues (4pts); BP loss vs. Waratahs (1pt); BP loss vs. Crusaders (1pt)

Final Points: 46

Final Position: 5^th in Australasian Group & 4^th in NZ Conference

HIGHLANDERS

Points: 38

Position: 5^th in Australasian Group & 4^th in NZ Conference

Remaining games: Kings in Port Elizabeth; Jaguares in Buenos Aires & Chiefs in Dunedin

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 36.1% (12^th)

Opinion: While the travel is a sod, facing the Kings means you can comfortably afford to leave the Smiths and Elliot Dixon at home before linking up with that trio in Buenos Aires.

They’ll get back from a successful away trip having boosted their points differential, which they will further pad in another hard fought, combative but ultimately victorious outing over the Chiefs in Dunedin.

Prediction: BP win vs. Kings (5pts); win vs. Jaguares (4pts); Win vs. Chiefs (4pts)

Final Points: 51

Final Position: 3^rd in Australasian Group & 2^nd in NZ Conference

WARATAHS

Points: 34

Position: 6^th in Australasian Group & 2^nd in Australian Conference

Remaining games: Sunwolves in Tokyo; Hurricanes in Sydney & Blues in Auckland

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 44.4% (10^th)

Opinion: After the obligatory bonus point win in Tokyo, Daryl Gibson’s men will outlast the Hurricanes to claim top spot in the Australian conference; a position they will cement with a dogged victory over the Blues in Auckland, timing their run into the playoffs very nicely.

Prediction: BP win vs. Sunwolves (5pts); win vs. Hurricanes (4pts); Win vs. Blues (4pts)

Final Points: 47

Final Position: 2^nd in Australasian Group & 1^st in Australian Conference

BLUES

Points: 30

Position: 7^th in Australasian Group & 5^th in NZ Conference

Remaining games: Hurricanes in Wellington; Brumbies in Auckland &Waratahs in Auckland

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 63.9% (5^th)

Opinion: While their outside shot at the playoffs will end this weekend in Wellington, the Blues will have a massive say in the outcome of the Australian conference over the final fortnight of round robin. They will roll the Brumbies in the penultimate game of the season before pushing the Waratahs all the way in another tough loss to a quality opponent.

Prediction: BP loss vs. Hurricanes (1pt); win vs. Brumbies (4pts); BP loss vs. Waratahs (1pt)

Final Points: 36

Final Position: 7^th in Australasian Group & 5^th in NZ Conference

REBELS

Points: 27

Position: 8^th in Australasian Group & 3^rd in Australian Conference

Remaining games: Stormers in Melbourne; Crusaders in Christchurch & Reds in Brisbane

Combined winning percentage of remaining opponents: 58.3% (9^th)

Opinion: They have an extremely outside chance of making the playoffs, but it’s a chance nonetheless.

However those fleeting hopes will be vaporised with a close loss to the Stormers this Saturday night, followed by a blowout loss to the Crusaders & an insipid ending in Brisbane.

Prediction: BP loss vs. Stormers (1pt); loss vs. Crusaders (0pts); BP loss vs Reds (1pt)

Final Points: 29

Final Position: 8^th in Australasian Group & 3^rd in Australian Conference

 

FINAL STANDINGS (based on these predictions)

1)      Crusaders (NZC Winner)        55 pts

2)      Waratahs (AC Winner)           47 pts

3)      Highlanders (Wildcard 1)       51 pts

4)      Chiefs (Wildcard 2)                51 pts

5)      Hurricanes (Wildcard 3)         46 pts

6)      Brumbies                                 45 pts

7)      Blues                                       36 pts

8)      Rebels                                     32 pts

9)      Reds                                        21 pts

10)  Force                                       13 pts

 

NIGEL YALDEN IS THE RUGBY EDITOR FOR RADIO SPORT & NEWSTALK ZB