So the one thing I think we can all agree on is that tomorrow's by-election in Northland has been a far more interesting race than most of us would have imagined.

The team with the most to lose is National of course. They went in with the automatic disadvantage of being the incumbent and history shows incumbents fare badly in by-elections.

But the upside was they'd held the seat for 50 years, had a majority of 9000, and had a great economic story to tell.

The campaign though has been a shambles. They have bribed, they have talked bollocks, they have scare mongered, they have looked desperate.

The bridge promises were pork barrel politics defined and as such were so blatant they could be seen as little more than what they were.

John Key telling the world trade would halt if Peters won was equally high on the bollocks metre, and presumably most of us saw that for it was.

I don't know whether they picked the candidate because they genuinely backed him or whether they weren't worried and he'd do.

But I am not sure he would have won me over. He's had a hell of a task. He's a nobody thrust into a 'National' spotlight and a white hot environment against the wilyest of wilyest campaigners. At times he's looked like the newbie he is hence the battalion of heavyweights that have run north to shore him up.

The biggest of which is John Key, who short of signing Korea up, has virtually moved to the Far North.

Labour have not come out of this well. They made the critical mistake of actually entering this race at all. They were never going to win. They should have checked with Peters first, given he'd been making noises and if they had...look at how they could have had their feet up these past couple of weeks instead of the hamfisted stumbling, bumbling nonsense they've had to roll out about voting for who you want. But not them. But they can't name Winston, because that would be a deal...which it isn't. But if you want to send a message..blah blah blah.

The only real winner here is of course Winston, not that he's not a recalcitrant as well, because he is. But at least he's fun with it. He no more cares about Northland today than he did before. His Party has already represented the North, so his claim now that the North should be the Florida of New Zealand rings hollow, because he had his chances.

But he's got what he wanted. Attention, headlines, a scrap, and who knows...maybe even a victory.

National should still win this in theory, given the economy, given the majority, given history, but you wouldn't be betting a lot on it as we sit here this morning given these past two polls.