In a chaotic double jab of shortsighted stupidity, the National Party seems to have forgotten two of the most important rules of politics. 

Don’t threaten voters and don’t forget that Winston Peters holds a grudge like no one else. 

In a move seemingly devoid of any semblance of common sense, the National Party managed somehow kill two birds with one story.  

In the Herald on Sunday, campaign chair Chris Biship spoke of a scenario where neither the left nor the right blocs get to 60 seats. 

In his scenario, the right bloc does not include New Zealand First. 

He then went further.  

“The second scenario is when there is essentially a hung Parliament and NZ First is in the middle, but it is just impossible to do a deal between National, Act and NZ First. That is a very real and growing possibility and that would necessitate, essentially, a second election.” 

It was the quote that set the scene for the final week of the campaign.  

It was interpreted as a threat to an already election-fatigued public. Bishop’s intention clear: A vote for New Zealand First could mean a vote for a second election.  

Winston Peters was quick to comment, saying National was treating voters with contempt and he was “scaremongering”.  

“It is telling voters National would instead enforce another costly election on the nation purely because of their own political expediency,” Peters told the Herald’s Claire Trevett.  

And Peters is right. 

A scenario where a weary looking Chris Luxon would have to front up to the New Zealand public with his tail between his legs and tell them the election’s back on is unfathomable. 

Unfathomable because of the impact it would have on the National Party. 

It’s not New Zealand First that would be punished in the polls – it would no doubt be Luxon and his team. 

The gap between the left and right is already a lot narrower than many are aware.  

Dragging Kiwis back to the polls would undoubtably see that gap narrow further, to the point where the left may leapfrog the right.  

A disaster scenario for National; a party on the cusp of winning back the treasury benches, forced back into opposition because of its hubris. 

But of course, it won’t happen. 

Bishop knew his threat was an empty one when he talked to one of New Zealand’s most respected political editors about a story which he also knew would be frontpage news, given the gravity of the claim.  

He gambled on the threat working: It didn’t. 

In Wednesday’s Tale of Two polls, National’s vote bumped a solemn one point according to 1News’ numbers; but they dropped almost 5 points according to Newshub.  

Meanwhile, New Zealand First remains firmly above the five percent threshold according to both polls.  

The ploy to scare voters away from Peters failed and in the crucial last week of the campaign National looked desperate. 

Bishop’s gambit was a silly one – but it’s not enough to sink the election for National.  

When the history books are written, the defining moment of the 2023 election occurred on August 28, when Chris Hipkins unambiguously and unequivocally ruled out working with New Zealand First.  

Since then, there have been no ifs buts or maybes in terms of an about turn on that position.  

For the left bloc, that means there's no realistic path to power – meaning tomorrow night, Hipkins will likely need to concede the election. 

Over at National HQ, it will be Luxon’s night. 

But amid the cheering and speeches, the National leader’s mind will be on the next couple of months, and the horse trading he’ll be doing with Peters.  

At New Zealand First HQ, Winston Peters won’t have forgotten National’s final gambit to scare voters off his party.  

A gambit that not only failed, but backfired.  

Now he’s in the drivers’ seat – and no one holds a grudge like Winston Peters.