Well, it was an interesting end of the week when it comes to domestic politics.  

With rumours swelling on Friday that the Prime Minister was considering his future over the weekend, he had to act quickly. There was absolutely no way he could go into the weekend with even the hint of speculation he was considering his future.  

When a sitting Prime Minister signals they are “considering their future”, it is almost always politically damaging. In parliamentary systems like ours, leadership authority depends heavily on perceived confidence and control. Once a leader questions themselves publicly it rapidly weakens their position with the party and the electorate.  

Honesty and transparency in this case doesn’t buy sympathy, it is more likely to create a trigger moment that encourages internal challengers. Be anything but unequivocal on Friday and the Prime Minister may as well have poured himself a Coke No Sugar and started planning a nice winter getaway. 

The sudden announcement he would appear on Heather de Plessis-Allan Drive just after 5pm on Friday evening was unusual enough to raise an eyebrow. But he was turning up to do exactly what needed to be done to remain credible - to get ahead of the story. He explained to Heather why he decided to appear - to set the story straight.  

After some easily clipped soundbites from his party deputy Nicola Willis, who told ZB’s Wellington Morning host Nick Willis that it hadn’t been a “great week for the Prime Minister”, Christopher Luxon made it very clear that he has the full support of his team and caucus. Since then, everyone has been very well behaved.  

Over the last few days, I’ve been reflecting on what a tough gig it is. There’s quite a lot of luck and timing involved in being a successful Prime Minister. A successful career in politics isn’t just about talent and ability, or the possession of that rare relatable charisma - it also comes down to what the country and the world throws at you. And - let’s not forget - what the previous Government left you.  

Look around the world and most leaders are dealing with the same issues we have - a slow economic recovery, the high cost of living, housing, a weird international trade environment, and much more.  

We haven’t seen much alternative policy from opposition parties to show us there are other, more likely to be successful, scenarios under alternative leadership that we’re currently missing out on. 

The reality is that the recovery was going to be difficult for whoever was in charge. But it’s especially difficult for a leader who takes on a cheerleading role with the vigour Luxon does. There’s a disconnect between the aspirational words and the reality of a Government that’s cutting rather than growing as much as we’d like, and when signs the economy is finally turning the corner are likely to squashed by conflict in the Middle East.  

• Barry Soper on Luxon, the Middle East and petrol
• 'Absolutely not': Christopher Luxon defends his position as Prime Minister

The only thing keeping Luxon in play is his ability to control his troops, the party’s desire to avoid the instability that comes with changing leadership, and the lack of an obvious replacement who could win an election.  

But history tells us that if the polls continue to trend downwards for the Nats, the Prime Minister may be organising that mid-winter break before you know it.  

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