Think of all the things you could do in 16 months. 

You could learn an instrument in 16 months. You could train and compete in a marathon, hell, in 16 months you could probably train for and complete an ironman. In 16 months, you could become reasonably proficient in a new language if you were really dedicated. You could meet a new partner, fall in love, conceive a child, and have them settled in daycare within 16 months.

Yet we’re 16 months from the U.S election. 16 months!! Half an electoral term in New Zealand. And the race for U.S President has kicked into gear.

Donald Trump launched his campaign with one of his typical rallies, we’re gonna see a whole lot of those over the next year and a half. I dunno if you saw it, but actually there was nothing much to differentiate the rally from one that he would have given four years ago. He railed against the media. He railed against immigration, even though he’s been in charge since the start of 2017. And despite the fact she isn’t his opponent this time, he launched into attacks on Hillary Clinton, sparking the old ‘Lock Her Up’ chant. 

The Democrats then kicked off their primary contest with two nights of debates. They needed two of course, because there are so many Democrats vying to become the nominee next year.

Is that a risk? Only if the primary contest gets super nasty. If they’re spitefully cutting each other down, and the lowlier contenders don’t exit the race fast enough. One of the things we learnt from the last election is that Republicans are much more effective at quietly moving on from their nastiest barbs to coalesce around a candidate. Some of Trump’s harshest critics from the Primaries – the likes of Lindsey Graham - are now his strongest political allies.

The last election was actually decided by a minuscule number of votes. Hillary Clinton comfortably won the popular vote, but by the structure of the electoral college, Trump won by 77,000 votes across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. 138 million votes cast and a group of people smaller than Palmerston North proved all the difference.

There are now some big strategic decisions for the Democrats to make. They have to decide whether to simply chase those 77,000 votes with a candidate who might appeal to previous Trump voters, or whether to try and blitz Trump with someone completely different. 

Is it better to go with someone like Joe Biden, who would effectively represent a reset, a return to the norms of U.S politics? Or better to go with someone who represents radical change? Bernie Sanders is vowing to wipe out 1.5 trillion in student debt. He wants universal healthcare! 

Having lived there and covered the last two U.S elections, I can’t tell you at the moment what I think is the best of those two strategies. Because I think there’s one other.

It has been mooted firstly as a joke, but increasingly seriously. My favourite American politico is the comedian and provocateur Bill Maher. He made a good pitch for this candidate last week. A candidate who would dazzle the electorate with their star power. A candidate who would cut across economic and racial lines, the groups by which we try to define voter blocks. A candidate who says they’ve been offered campaign financing by billionaires who’ve pleaded with them, desperately, to enter the race. 

Bill Maher reckons this candidate is the only sure thing. The only person guaranteed to unite Democrats and independents and to sew the first in unifying a divided America.

It might sound absurd but I can’t think of a good argument against it.

And just imagine, 16 months from now. President Donald Trump defeated, by President Elect Oprah Winfrey.