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Mike's Minute: We need to wake up to the economic reality

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Wed, 11 Nov 2020, 9:29AM

Mike's Minute: We need to wake up to the economic reality

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Wed, 11 Nov 2020, 9:29AM

My great hope is that those who have been doing their exams of late, especially the economics-based ones, have been able to, at least, be taught a bit, and tested on, what are truly remarkable times.

I somehow don’t think the curriculum moves at quite the pace the real world is at the moment, which is a shame. To understand what we are currently going through would be invaluable, and today is another important part of that.

The Reserve Bank will be detailing a number of ground breaking ideas and decisions involving negative interest rates and a funding for lending programme for commercial banks.

How it all works is the key. We have never been before on either matter, we have never even been close to being here on either matter. These are the most unconventional of unconventional tools.

And they are controversial. Australia, for example, seem determined not to go down the negative interest rate path, and yet we do.

Why?

The why is important because the consequences are massive.

The funding-for-lending programme is money and discount rates directly from the Reserve Bank to the commercial banks with a view to that money being sent out to keen borrowers to boost the economy. But how and on what?

The "what” is critical because the consequences are critical. The very reason we are here is because we are in serious trouble.

Which is the other part of the equation, the political side. Grant Robertson told us yesterday things are going better than expected, which is smoke and mirrors. What we expected was a guess, nothing more. We thought the house would burn down, turns out it's only two bedrooms, the front room, and the kitchen. So, phew.

The reality is if things were peachy Adrian Orr would have little to do today, except yak about the cash rate. Even that at 0.25 percent, is a story in itself.  And yet here he is, dishing out detail on some of the most draconian fiscal policy we are ever likely to see.

And how many of us understand it properly? How many can explain it? It affects us all, our jobs, our lives, and our futures, but my guess is very few have any real idea at all.

We are in the middle if history, watching it unfold, and yet sadly my guess is too many of us are bystanders, and in no real way participants.

It's a tragedy.

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