The worst-case scenario is Simon Bridges wins.
It has been suggested by a number of people that some of the challenge depends on tonight's poll on TVNZ.
Why that would be the case I have no idea.
What are they saying? If TVNZ has National on 40, not 30, Bridges is safe? Surely the story then would simply be that, yet again, we should have little, if any, faith in polls.
Which brings us back to the original issue National seems to be failing to grasp.
Broadly speaking, forget the minutiae of any given poll. Any opposition party in the western world right now is not overly popular because of fear created by governments in lockdown, and the subsequent lolly scramble that followed once restrictions started to lift.
In a cataclysmic event where people's lives, livelihoods, and futures are being tossed asunder, politics is not front of mind. And if asked a fairly general sort of question about who's leading the place, as long as they're not called Bolsonaro you're likely to get a fairly positive response.
So, all that's achieved if Bridges wins is a group of people have been flushed out within the National caucus who we know for sure don't think their own leader is up to it.