So we finally found James Shaw yesterday, having been flushed out on a scandal that may well sink him and his team.

Is this Metiria Turei 2.0?

The money itself to my mind isn't the end of the world and never has been. The school, as wacky as parts of it may appear, is a shovel ready project, puts money into the economy, and provides jobs. In other words, it ticks boxes required by the government in their $3 billion shovel ready project fund.

The fact Shaw threatened to hold up the rest of the fund unless he got his way is stupid, but a response to the fact, I suspect, that the Greens have been shafted this term and were presumably over it.

They also, given the way the govt has treated Taranaki on oil and gas, probably thought they owed the region something as comparatively small as it may actually be.

The fact Shaw really didn’t do the due diligence is on him, and as Winston Peters, quite rightly points out, is a testament to inexperience.

So politically it’s a catastrophe. Economically, if you're not a Greens supporter, it's hardly the end of the world.

But it's the politics here in the early part of September that really counts. And here is why it's so important, Labour will not get a majority, The polls, if you believe them, are wrong. When National used to track at 50 percent plus, they openly admitted it wasn’t real. This isn't real either.

So the simple maths works like this, to win, Labour need the Greens. If they don't have the Greens, they will lose government. National, by the 19th of October could be in the 40s, ACT is good for 4 or 5, maybe. That's a government.

Ironically the Greens are the balance of power, not in a New Zealand First kind of way. The Greens are wedded to the left, but without the Greens, Labour are sunk.

• Green School at centre of $12m funding debacle struggling with backlash
• Heather du Plessis-Allan: James Shaw's Green School solution fixes nothing
• Kate Hawkesby: Greens will be hoping supporters have short memories
• Auckland private training schools may miss out on new fund

So are the greens sunk? Metiria Turei didn’t finish them, but she came close. This smacks of something freakishly similar.

Whatever it is about them, they have 2 hurdles. They under perform on the night compared to polling, and polling has them at 5 or less. Plus, they shoot themselves in the foot.

So, if you thought the election was a forgone conclusion, think again. And if you don’t want to think again, you're out to lunch.