Mike's Minute: Don't believe the numbers

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 27 Jul 2020, 10:48AM

Mike's Minute: Don't believe the numbers

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Mon, 27 Jul 2020, 10:48AM

COMMENT:

So there's quite a lot of bad news in last night's Newshub poll.

Sadly, lot of it is bad news for Newshub who, I think, will have to explain how Labour aren't, won't, never were, never will, be getting the 60 percent support they currently claim they have.

It's not directly their fault, the numbers are given to them by the people they pay to do the collection, but 60 percent in a MMP environment is not real, or close to real.

Nor does it, of course tally, with the other polls, one of which was featured earlier yesterday. Under the headline "Game On" and Judith Collins is fizzing, given the Stuff-Massey poll has National on 40.

Newshub has them on 25, One has them on 38, so is it 24, 40, or 38?

So here's the deal with polls, don't take them seriously. And certainly don't take them seriously at a time like this, given what the world is going through the numbers could be anything. And it is only on the day, that we will really know.

The reality is it may take until the day, election day, that a lot of people actually tune in, think about it, and actually make a decision. Given the world right now, even with an election close, a lot of people have vastly more important things to think about.

Jobs might be one of them, along with meeting bills, their future, and their kids future. This country is upside down, it's a massive mess and hundreds of thousands of lives are being tossed asunder. Who supports who will be dealt with for many, on another day.

If there is one consistency in all the polls it’s the third parties who are heading for extinction. ACT aside, who are up in all polls, and will be back given the Epsom deal. But for New Zealand First and the Greens all polls show either they miss by a lot, or they're on the very edge, and should be freaking out.

And as for any of the other pretenders looking to make their mark, forget it. Pack up, go home, and save your money. The Greens making it back will be a miracle, far less the less than one percenters.

As for National and Labour, believe me this will be way closer than certainly last night's numbers show.

You simply can't have 40, 38, and 25 for National all by credible, professional outfits all claiming a certain level of accuracy and realistically believe any of it.

Never before have polls been less real, less relevant, or less accurate.

Right now a dartboard would work just as well.

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