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Mike's Minute: World's business model needs to come back to normal

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Fri, 15 Jul 2022, 10:21am
Photo / Getty
Photo / Getty

Mike's Minute: World's business model needs to come back to normal

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Fri, 15 Jul 2022, 10:21am

We have a couple of things that have played out this week that we saw coming and so many others didn’t, despite the fact they were in plain sight.

Actually, it's three things. I wasn’t going to mention inflation. But you have to ask whether many of the central bank heads are up to much given how badly they have interpreted inflation. The American number yesterday is leading many now to suggest a full one point is on the cards for the next rate hike.

And I think when we get our number on Monday it will show the forecast of us having peaked is delusional.

But the other two things are Buy Now Pay Later and streaming.

Netflix are dealing with Microsoft on an ad version of their product. Why? Because the model they currently have is falling apart.

Our prediction was we would get too many streaming services, and so it is proving to be. It was confirmed on the show this week by John Lithgow no less. Have all the outlets you want, it doesn't mean the quality gets improved.

Netflix, or anyone else, was ever going to be able to make the amount of new stuff at such a level to keep up. So, they bought other stuff. But I note this week a lot of that other stuff had an expiry date on it and when the deal was up, it was gone.

It's shows like Friends. The irony is outside of the occasional originals that drew an audience, things like Drive to Survive or Stranger Things, that was the stuff people were watching.

So Netflix are now going to run ads, stop the binge part of their operation, and hope the millions that are leaving will stop leaving.

Then Buy Now Pay Later is collapsing like crypto. Not enough saw it for what it was. It was old-fashioned Laybuy dressed up. It was merely another way of getting yourself into debt.

And who was going to use it? People with no money. The trouble with people with no money is they are a risk, and so it has turned out to be.

Not to mention the fact it wasn't regulated and by the time authorities got concerned, the Ukraine war had started, inflation had arrived, bad debts had gone through the roof, and the value of these companies started tanking. Zip and Sezzle terminated their merger this week, one bank's stake in the Swedish BNPL Klarna lost a couple of billion in value, and Klarna itself lost 85% of its value. It’s a mess.

The lesson here is we don’t seem to be getting any smarter. New ideas are everywhere, but very few are any good, very few are for the long haul, and even fewer are revolutionary.

But maybe that’s the new business model? Spruik the plan, get the gullible sucked in, take their money, and when the game is up move onto the next town.

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