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Mike's Minute: There's an anticipation around 2026

Author
Mike Hosking ,
Publish Date
Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 10:57am
Photo / Getty
Photo / Getty

Mike's Minute: There's an anticipation around 2026

Author
Mike Hosking ,
Publish Date
Sat, 24 Jan 2026, 10:57am

Well, week one of the year and I feel there is much to be anticipatory about – perhaps even excited. 

As we look about the place the glass half empty operator could argue, "doesn’t this feel a bit like last year?" And indeed, in bits, it does. 

But in others it doesn’t. This would appear to be a country at long, long last on the move. 

There's a lot of components you can be happy about. 

Confidence is up for the consumer and for the business. 

Inflation will be contained. Small irony – it could be slightly hotter than you might once have thought. That could be seen as good or bad as no one wants more inflation than necessary, but a warmer number could mean activity in the economy and could mean the Reserve Bank is back with a beady eye toward upward interest rate activity sooner than we thought. 

Housing has genuine life and Cotality showed that with those numbers this week. 

Jobs are solid. There's six months of growth with some sectors very alive and growing, manufacturing with outrageously good numbers and, probably the headline grabber of the week, the services sector back in positive territory for the first time in a couple of years. 

And all of that comes off the GDP numbers that told us the latter part of last year was actually already into rude growth territory. 

Dairy of course has reversed its troublesome bump. Two auctions this year and two excellent results. Even wool, the problem child of rural New Zealand, is back to excellent numbers and money is in pockets. 

From the 'once bitten, twice shy' department there is a reserved nature from a lot of the observers, and who can blame them? But you would have to be pretty dour not to see all of this and conclude the tipping point has been well and truly reached and enough of the fundamentals are now in place and ready to play their part in making 2026 quite possibly a year to remember. 

One hopes lessons can be learned. The haul out of the quagmire is always harder than the journey into it. 

Spending money you don’t have is not just a fool's game, but it's easy. 

Debt and its outworkings are real. 

Lives are genuinely and materially affected by poor leadership and bad decision making. 

We have had half a decade of fiscal fallout from it. This year presents the rewards of the long road back. 

Let's not waste it. Let's learn from it. Let's enjoy it. 

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