It is very hard to come to any other conclusion over David Bain's compensation bid than this Government is looking not to pay anything.

I refer you to my column in the New Zealand Herald of January 29, in which I predicted that this latest move was coming.

It is impossible to believe they don't have the information they need. You must remember, this is a political decision now.

Cabinet needs to find one of two things:

1. Exceptional circumstances

And/or:

2. Innocent on the balance of probabilities

They have both. They've had both for a couple of years.

You can commission reports for the rest of your days. Some will say he deserves paying out, some won't.

Given they have one that supports compensation, why would you want another unless you:

A - Either think Simon Power, in hiring Justice Binnie in the first place made a fundamental error, which they have not indicated is the case.

B - You want a different outcome

The report they have just commissioned can come back with nothing new in the case. There are no undiscovered facts, no hidden evidence, the legal process is exhausted.

They don't need another report, another report will have nothing to give them other than opinion.

What's interesting about this is this is normally a pragmatic Government. this is a Government that looks to tick boxes and keep things tidy.

Bain has dragged on for ludicrous periods of time for now, no good reason.

They might be concerned that any payment would set a precedent, but it doesn't. Each case at this level is decided on its own specific and individual merits.

That's what makes this case so unusual. We have not seen since Arthur Thomas a man rounded with no criminal past, and charged with something, jailed for it, then later let out having been found not guilty.

As I have said many times...if it was up to me, the mere fact he was found not guilty would be enough for an official apology and some sort of recompense. The fact people in this circumstance have to jump through even higher hurdles and it becomes political seems to heap unnecessary pressure, stress and upset on an already abysmal situation.

So here's my latest prediction: Whoever they find to do this report will unsurprisingly find no compensation need be paid, and the Government, equally unsurprisingly, will accept it as full and final.

I hope I am wrong, but I say it with no sense of confidence.