Tumbling down. The downward curve in Covid cases has been strong and swift. Just 63 cases on Saturday, marking a two month low. And just 103 yesterday. The rolling average is in the double digits.

Some of the modellers who binge on hyperbole, with their shock and awe projections, like Michael Plank, are conceding that the sharp drop-off wasn’t projected. They’re surprised.

What’s the chances Cabinet might surprise us today with their check-in on the traffic lights?

Just imagine if they had the courage to change a few lights.

You don’t need me to relitigate how completely out of whack the Traffic Light settings and their core definitions are with the reality on the ground region by region.

If they stayed true to the factors that underpin those settings, nowhere in New Zealand would be at Red. And probably not at Orange. But given this government’s extreme obsession with risk averseness, no one’s going Green today. 

Going Green would see the mask mandates given the flick everywhere, apart from flights. But with this crowd, we can only dream for that day to arrive.

Surely though, with case rates falling and vax rates surging and no pressure on hospitals, a whole swag of regions, currently stuck at Red, should turn Orange today.

The Auckland region for starters, with its double dose rate at 92 per cent.

What about the Whanganui region? They’ve got one case. 

What about Gisborne, Tairawhiti? They’ve got no cases.

Yes, their fully vaxxed rates are still in the mid-eighties, but first dose rates are north of 90.

Orange is game-changing. The huge gain is the capacity caps for hospo, gatherings and events are zapped. 

And as much as the hand-wringers fret about low Maori vaccination rates – let's not forget, the vast majority of Maori have stepped up. 75 per cent fully vaxxed.

The holdouts, the tuned out and the slackers have had ample opportunity to protect themselves. They’ve made their bed. They’ve made their choice. Why should they hold you hostage with a big Red light?

Let's go Orange, today.