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Mike Hosking: Trump's re-election chances are better than ever

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Thu, 20 Jun 2019, 11:37AM
It's his race to lose, writes Mike. (Photo / AP)

Mike Hosking: Trump's re-election chances are better than ever

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Thu, 20 Jun 2019, 11:37AM

As a piece of television, as an event, it was right up there. Donald Trump is never better than when is in front of his crowd. 

And what a crowd it was, in a world where so many have a disdain for politics, he still packs them out. They had 120,000 requests for tickets, the stadium holds 20,000 plus floor space. It was chocka and it was rocking. 

Melania did the introductions, and he started with a stat that reminds us what he's done for these times. 

It was four years ago this week he announced his candidacy. For the political junkie you can't forget it, the gold elevator in Trump Tower in June 2015. And from that moment politics changed forever, mistakes were made, the biggest of which was from the millions who wrote him off. 

I didn’t for the very simple reason, and there's no genius involved, that he'd been looking to run for years. If you see the documentary Get Me Roger Stone, Stone claims he was telling him to run in the 1980s. So the fact he pulled the trigger meant he'd worked out it was doable. 

Even more amazingly having beaten 17 other rivals for the Republican nomination, they still wrote him off. 

And of all the things I've done in this job, and all the places I have been, little, if anything, beats election night in New York City in 2016 when I was at Hillary Clinton's headquarters watching that dream explode in a slow motion night of sheer despair. 

So what chance for a second term? As we sit here right now, having watched yesterday afternoon in Florida, I'd say better than even. 

What the crowds remind you of, is that despite all the noise, the scandal, the headlines, and the attempts to make him look silly, or old, or weird, or insane, the people who love him, still love him. And it's entirely possible given the attacks he's been under, they love him more. 

And that is the madness of the Democrats and the liberal media. Such is their hatred of him and all he stands for, all they've managed to do is galvanise his support base. He has voters who would die for him, there isn't a Democrat alive who could make the same claim.  

Trump supporters text me and tell me it'll be a landslide, I'm not so sure. And I'm not so sure because the greatest weapon he has to convince voters his way is the economy, and June 2019 is not 2020, and lord knows what happens to the economy between now and then. 

China is trouble, tariffs don’t work, and he can't hide from that forever. The likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and the Midwest believed he'd bring jobs back and open factories. 

Tariffs won't do that. You can love a guy all you want, but the relationship is severely tested if you don't have a job. 

The polls are also worth worrying about, not because they're bulletproof accurate, given our increasing scepticism, but because they create a narrative. And at the moment he's behind virtually all the serious Democratic contenders, and I don’t think he wants to spend a lot of energy trying to convince swing voters that’s not true. 

Upside he has money, the Republican Party and it's money. And their ground infrastructure is enormous and effective. And history tends to give you two goes. 

It will be a genuine and exciting race, and if yesterday's launch is a taster, he is loving it, he's up for it , and it's his to lose. 

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