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Mike Hosking: OECD report shows Grant and Adrian overreacted

Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Tue, 3 Aug 2021, 11:49AM
 (Photo / NZ Herald)
(Photo / NZ Herald)

Mike Hosking: OECD report shows Grant and Adrian overreacted

Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Tue, 3 Aug 2021, 11:49AM

Probably the most useful piece of housing data has lobbed up on our desks.

It is from the OECD, and it shows that housing has boomed just about everywhere, it has been driven by cheap money.

And what the Government has tried to do here to curb it is futile, was always futile, but because they insisted on interfering, all it did was lead to a series of unwelcome outcomes that those of us who have been watching housing for a while, predicted right from the get go.

So, the OECD includes 40 countries, only 3 experienced real term house price falls, and the rest?

Through the roof, the biggest and broadest increases since records began.

First quarter of this year across the group and we see an increase of 9.1 per cent.

Annualise that out and you soon realise that the hysteria some have saddled themselves with is far from uncommon.

And all you had to realise is the circumstances are far from uncommon.

And given the circumstances with time will ease, so will the increases.

It could be called a cycle, housing is about cycles.

Yes, the story varies from country to country, but what we know about our country is we go up and up and up, then we pause and pause, then off we go again.

Occasionally, the GFC was the last time, we get a dip, but the dip is nowhere near the previous rises, so if you see real estate over a longish term period as you should, you’re always winning.

From the UK to Turkey to South Korea to America to Australia, we’ve all been in the middle of the same thing.

Except our panic has led to what?

A promise to tilt the market to the first home buyer, a promise that was never going to be kept, and as of last week new data that showed rent was up almost 5 per cent; why?

Because they made being a landlord and investing in houses hard work and expensive, and that expense was merely passed onto the poor tenant, many of whom would have hoped to be a first home buyer.

The irony here, given this Labour Government, as the report points out, is those who had property got richer, and spent accordingly.

The renter, the non-home owner never had a chance.

This is one of the biggest booms since the 1900s.

The good news in the OECD report is that one; mortgage growth has been largely driven by people in good financial positions and two; post 2008, banks are extra vigilant, hence, they don’t lend to people who can’t afford it.

So in summary, the OECD report shows Grant and Adrian over reacted, what we’ve seen, everyone’s seen.

Except not everyone freaked out, and as a result, for some it was made far worse than it had to be.

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