COMMENT:

So Budget 2019 has come and gone.

To his credit, Grant Robertson presented it well, sold it well, and laid out exactly what he was trying to do.

Whether, of course, it works or is sensible or fiscally responsible is where the debate goes from now, into next year's election.

They led with mental health and put a lot of money into it and aside from expenditure for hospitals and schools, the only other major winner was rail, which got $1 billion.

There was a lot of what you would loosely call rats and mice, a lot of bits and pieces scattered far and wide over Māori, Pasifika, the productive nation, transforming the economy, and other broad-based categories.

I like rail. Their argument around rail is good, it cuts congestion and gets trucks off the road. They're looking to train more apprentices, good. There is more for a Venture Capital Fund to get businesses past the startup phase, good.

In the social area, they're indexing benefits to wage rises and they are throwing millions at family violence. This stuff is their calling card, it's the equality Government.

But the bit you can't escape is the numbers around the economy. "It's the economy stupid", is a truism not just a phrase. And one that counts and has been proven accurate time and time again, not just here but all over the world.

There is no equality without a thriving economy, and in the numbers around that are the real troubles.

Growth is now just over two per cent, they are spending more than they said they would, more than $15 billion more over four years.

The surplus in 2020 is down to $1.3 billion, it was $8 billion and rising. And $1.3 billion in terms of what they have budget wise is comparative pocket change and is the sort of thing that can vanish, and turn to a deficit. That would be unconscionable.

So Grant Robertson is under real fiscal pressure. More spending, less income, less growth, a world economy slowing, local policies that have led to a loss of confidence, so he is running it very close to the wire. It would take next to nothing more to happen for this to go into the red.

But if you’re a supporter, this is what they said they would do. This is the sort of thing they're about.

And his argument is that the local spend leads to economic growth. He's partially right.

But the real question around the sensibleness of the approach is, does a lot of social goodwill change, and fundamentally, change the society and therefore, lead to savings in the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff stuff we currently spend it on? Or is it just a lot more money going down a never-ending hole leading nowhere transformative?

That’s the real test of all this, and that is what will ultimately give this government a second term, or not.