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Mike Hosking: Australia is a basket case, but Malcolm Turnbull is toast

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 Aug 2018, 7:18AM
Do remember none of this is new, this has been going on for years, and Australia of late seems in a permanent state of upheaval.
Do remember none of this is new, this has been going on for years, and Australia of late seems in a permanent state of upheaval.

Mike Hosking: Australia is a basket case, but Malcolm Turnbull is toast

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 Aug 2018, 7:18AM

As Malcolm Turnbull waits nervously for his party room meeting today, a couple of things seem slightly ironic.

Do remember none of this is new, this has been going on for years, and Australia of late seems in a permanent state of upheaval.

All the way back to Rudd, Gillard, Abbott and Turnbull we see the factionalism and bitching.

But as it all unfolds, isn't it ironic that Australia is booming?

Unemployment at record lows, plenty of growth, the mining sector back to life and prospering.

This all proving perhaps that the link between politics and economic life aren't necessarily all that interconnected.

History shows Australia has been successful economically basically for decades, the lucky country it's named for a reason.

But leaders come and leaders go, and the good old economy keeps turning over.

And the other thing, I wonder if our MMP system has prevented the sort of internal factionalism we see over there.

Pre MMP, Roger Douglas and David Lange looked very Turnbull and Abbott.

But Australia is a two-party state, at the lower level at least.

In a first past the post system, the church is so broad you capture such an array of views within the one grouping, that almost inevitably you see the views espoused headed for conflict.

America has the same issue. Liberal Republicans, conservative Republicans, Tea party Republicans. Bernie and Clinton, poles apart.

If there is an advantage of our system it allows a pressure valve, a chance to break away to argue your case, with a potentially genuine chance of getting across the line come election time.

In Australia, you have no chance, so you hang in there, destabilising your party looking to try and drag fellow members to your side of the room to influence future direction.

In New Zealand, if you're Anderton, Peters, or Turia you simply break away and go it alone.

Which brings us to TOP.

They're back, they weren't going to be back, but the call they say, has been overwhelming, which is the danger of listening to a small circle of your mates.

You are soon suckered into believing that what a handful say is the view of the masses, when in reality it rarely, if ever is.

But good on them for giving it a go, and as it turns out I have advice.

One, the new leader Geoff Simmons better get some name recognition and fast. Say what you want about Morgan, but at least everyone knew him.

Two, get your policies together based on belief not research. Grab bags of ideas never work, didn't work last time, won't work this time. You have to believe what you're saying, not quote stats.

Three, they need to be simple and understandable. Their last policies made no sense, their tax policy was the work of nutters.

Four, I'd use Gareth more than they clearly plan to. Never underestimate the power of name recognition. And for all his craziness he's actually quite fun, in a Shane Jones, come Winston Peters sort of way.

I'd stand him in an electorate.

Either way, as we sit here in mid-2018, at two percent last time, you never know this time.

What I do know is across the Tasman is Turnbull is toast.

 

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