Today's inflation numbers won't reflect the full impact of the war in the Middle East. 

The first quarter of this year's expected to show a dip in annual inflation after 2025 ended with a rate of 3.1%.  

Bank economists are predicting an inflation rate between 2.8 and 3.1%. 

BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking despite not showing the current picture, there will still be some interest in today’s numbers – particularly the core inflation figures. 

He says that if they ease, it’ll give the Reserve Bank a bit more rope to look through some of the shock, and if they strengthen, it’ll probably excite those calling for earlier rate increases. 

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