I’m not convinced there’s a coup afoot in the National Party.

I’m prepared to be wrong - these are unpredictable times - but this whole story feels fishy to me.

Before I go on, don’t mistake me for an apologist for Simon Bridges. I don’t think he’s the right guy for the job and never have. He should have been rolled years ago.

But is he being rolled now? Let’s look at how this all played out.

A guy called David Cormack writes a blog post last night. In the blog he says there are “credible rumours coming out of team National tonight that a ticket with Paula Bennett and Mark Mitchell is doing the numbers”.

Twitter goes nuts, mainstream media picks it up, Bridges denies it, his caucus rolls out to back him on social media.

And then the guy who started it, David Cormack, sort of backs down. After all of this blows up, he writes on social media this morning “I see my column caused a bit of a stir today. What I got told was rumour, and may not be true. There is every chance I got used to make Simon panic.”

Face palm, I suppose.

Look, this can sometimes be how a coup is started. Politicians put something out there, they get the drums beating, they pounce.

And Bridges is vulnerable. National’s polling is now between 31 and 35 per cent in the internal polls and he’s making too many mistakes. Worse still, compare him to Jacinda Ardern and he doesn’t come close does he?

But, a coup now doesn’t sound credible for these reasons:
1 The Nats watched Labour rip itself apart with coup after coup. They’ve seen the destruction it causes.
2 We’re in an international crisis. Polls and sentiments are in a state of flux, but most politicos would understand it’s likely temporary.
3 Creating an internal crisis in the middle of an international crisis won’t win the Nats any support.

My gut feel is this isn’t happening.

But the problem for Simon Bridges is that the basic premise behind it is right. He’s not the right guy for the job. And that’s the reason this story got traction – because it’s believable.