Well, of course you heard it here first last Monday - the surplus has been pushed out again.

It's like waiting for Christmas when you're a ten-year-old, the whole month of December feels like an eternity.

This lot have now pushed it out three times and changed the definition of surplus. Not only have we moved the goalposts, we've lowered them, too.

Next year's deficit is almost $14 billion, that's $1.8 billion worse than they thought it would be in May. We're not back in black till 2030 now, instead of 2029.

That's what happens when you borrow a bunch of money you have to pay back and then fail to grow your way out of it.

Basically, Grant Robertson went and bought a brand new lambo on the credit card and then when he buggered off, we got Nicola who promised she'd get us some more work to pay for the debt so we wouldn't go broke. 

But that extra work hasn't quite happened yet - so here we are.

The good news is - it is coming, they tell us. More than 3 percent next year. In theory. All going to plan. And Willis is promising to get the surplus by 2029, even if the books don't show that yet.

I think it's enough to get them re-elected, providing no surprises from Winston, because people know what the alternative is.

And that's more debt. On ghost visits to the doctor for billionaires who don't need it with GPs we don't have. Yes, they could please Hooten and slash spending - I'd be here for it.

But this is MMP and they're an unashamedly centrist party that needs to win the centre.

And winning the centre means not spooking the horses, which is what massive cuts would achieve.

So, another fiscal result we were mostly expecting telling us what we mostly knew was coming.

Like the last two polls of the year, the pre-Christmas treat for Luxon and co. is - the growth is coming on stream, finally, in an election year.

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