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I don’t even want to start guessing why the PM released that doomsday model this afternoon.
But whatever her motivations, I am not in the slightest convinced by the numbers.
According to the model – designed by Shaun Hendy – even if we get 80% of us vaccinated, we will still see 7000 deaths a year from covid.
That’s 135 a week.
That will scare the living day lights out of some people.
But it’s not in the slightest plausible.
Do you know how you know that?
Look at what’s happening in real life.
You don’t need a model… you can just look at Singapore.
Same population size as NZ, vaccination rate over that 80% mark now, not seeing 7000 deaths a year.
They’ve had 16 in the last month.
According to Hendy's model they should’ve recorded 540 in the last month alone.
I could run you through any number of countries with high vax rates that are not recording anything like the level of deaths that Hendy is predicting.
in fact, even if you wanted to ignore real life and stick to comparisons between models, take a look at what the models across the Tasman are predicting and you’ll find Hendy an alarmist.
One is predicting 26 deaths a year across Australia.
Even the worst-case scenarios I can find come nowhere near the predictions Hendy's making.
As I say I don’t know the motivation for putting this extremely questionable number out there.
If it was to scare people into embracing this lockdown or embracing closed borders, I’m disappointed.
Right now, we need hope, not fear.
And if fear was the motivation, I hope to God it doesn’t work.