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So, let’s take a look at that Taxpayers Union Curia poll out today.
It’s significant because it shows a massive narrowing in the gap between Labour and National.
Labour is on 42%.
National is on 38%.
The surprise there is the big result for National. That’s high. That’s higher than other recent polls have National and I’d like to see it confirmed by another poll before I take it as a given. It could be a lucky sample for them.
But the trend is credible. They are definitely on the up.
And that’s probably because the mood of the country is changing and it’s changing fast after summer.
You can see it in the poll’s question on whether we think the country is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction.
Over the summer we were feeling good and most of us said ‘right direction’, but as soon as we got back to work and reality, it slumped. Now it’s an almost even split. Only 1% more of us think right direction.
If that slips into negative territory – and more of us think we’re headed in the wrong direction – it becomes hard for a government to get re-elected. Just ask Helen Clark. It went negative on her in 2008 just before she lost government.
There are a few other points in the Taxpayer's Union Curia poll worth noting.
If you’d struggled to understand why Labour was holding up in the polls but people around you keep bitching about them, the reason is because the real support for Labour is way softer than it seems. Their hardcore support is only 35%, which is very close to what they got at the 2017 election when Winston put them into government.
Labours already lost almost a third of voters who voted for it at the last election.
A third of them have gone to National, a few have gone to Act but most of them don’t know where to go, they just know they’ve abandoned Labour.
And this is where it gets interesting. Covid is still the biggest issue in the country, but the second biggest issue is the economy.
Labour is strongest on Covid. National is strongest on the economy.
Which do you think is going to be the biggest issue next year when we go to the polls?
Pick it right and you might just pick the winning party.
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