A former Government virus modeller claims the latest official forecast of possible Covid deaths is overcooked.
Te Punaha Matatini research suggests 7000 people would die of Covid in a year, with an 80% vaccination rate.
Its modelling suggests having 90% vaccine coverage of everyone five and older would see about 500 hospitalisations, and 50 deaths annually.
But Wigram Capital modeller Rodney Jones says that's not plausible.
He says we're always going to have some restrictions and rapid tests and people will behave.
But Te Punaha Matatini Professor Sean Hendy insists the figures are a dose of realism.
He says with 80% of the eligible population over five vaccinated, one-million would still be unvaccinated, and Delta's much worse than the virus we dealt with last year.