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What to expect from President Trump and Kim Jong Un meeting

Author
AP / Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Wed, 27 Feb 2019, 5:33PM
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un at the Singapore summit last June. Photo / AP

What to expect from President Trump and Kim Jong Un meeting

Author
AP / Newstalk ZB,
Publish Date
Wed, 27 Feb 2019, 5:33PM

President Donald Trump's message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been simple and clear: give up your nuclear weapons and a flood of wealth will soon be yours for the taking.

But here's a nagging question: Is that really what Kim wants?

With Trump and Kim descending on Hanoi for their second summit , there has been a persistent suggestion that Kim will look around at the relative prosperity of his Vietnamese hosts — who are certainly no strangers to U.S. hostility — and think that he, too, should open up his country to more foreign investment and trade.

Trump himself has been the primary cheerleader.

Before boarding Air Force One, he tweeted that "Chairman Kim realises, perhaps better than anyone else, that without nuclear weapons, his country could fast become one of the great economic powers anywhere in the world."

Robert Kelly is an International relations and US foreign policy expert. He told Larry Williams Drive he would like to see President Trump ask the North Korean leader about their infamous nuclear weapons inventory. 

"The core issue is how advanced they are with their nuclear weapons. The North Korean's are dancing around this, with production facilities and how many weapons they have in their inventory. They could have 50 weapons or 200, we just don't know.

"The most likely scenario is that both sides will make some type of small concession."

As Kim arrived in Hanoi, back in Pyongyang the ruling party's daily newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, printed a commentary vowing the nation will stay the course the Kim family has set for the past three generations.

"The revolutionary cause of juche (self-reliance) and the cause of socialism are sure to triumph" under the guidance of the party and the people "who remain faithful to the cause of the party with indomitable mental power," it said.

Kim's primary objectives have focused on the development of infrastructure projects, building up the tourism industry and strengthening government regulation of the country's expanding market-style economy.

"The statements from Trump at North Korea as the next economic powerhouse seem to assume that were the nuclear weapons out of the picture, North Korea would immediately open its doors and society to anyone wanting to come in and invest," said Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, a fellow at the Henry L. Stimson Center and editor of North Korea Economy Watch. "But the regime will want to maintain the main facets of social control."

Silberstein said the government isn't likely to let foreign business people roam freely around the country anytime soon. He added that Kim has focused on promoting special economic zones because they have the potential for high growth while remaining isolated "walled gardens."

In the immediate future, Kim's goals are pragmatic.

He is seeking to get in front of the grassroots market forces that are growing all around him and undercut support for trade sanctions that are limiting his options and drying up government coffers.

His government is especially interested in moving ahead on projects with South Korea, including the re-opening of a tourist resort at Mount Kumgang and an industrial center near the city of Kaesong that were both built with massive funding from the South. North Korea is also hurting badly from its inability to export its minerals and coal.

Having nuclear weapons is what got him to the point where he could meet directly with a U.S. president. So he would be foolish to throw that away without a significant reward. On the other hand, if he goes deep down the capitalist path, like South Korea, Kim could risk undermining his regime's own legitimacy.

The story of Vietnam, north and south, is in that sense a cautionary tale. The economic reforms and growth of today's Vietnam only came after unification. For the Koreas, the South remains a viable option.

Silberstein believes that is not an insurmountable fear for Kim.

"Market reforms are already happening and have been for quite some time, it's just that Kim Jong Un never formally announced an overhaul of the system," he said, adding that under Kim, market trade has been allowed to expand, and has even been encouraged by the state to do so. Enterprises have received unprecedented freedom to plan their own production and dispose of a large share of their profits themselves.

"The same has happened in agriculture, and from what we know, the results have been successful," he said. "I strongly believe that Kim wants to take this process of liberalization further, though it will likely never be called 'reforms,' only 'improvements.'"

"The tricky part is how to balance letting loose on some of the strict social control, such as opening up space for private investments both from abroad and from the general public, changing the governance of private property, massively upgrading communications infrastructure and the like, with still keeping information about the outside world away or at least regulated."

Silberstein suggested that if given a choice between social controls or economic reforms, Kim will choose control.

"Whatever might happen, they'll proceed cautiously," he said.

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