Colmar Brunton defends accuracy of poll

Author
Newstalk ZB,
Section
Audio,
Publish Date
Monday, 10 June 2019, 5:00PM
Two polls last night showed two wildly different results. (Photo / Getty)

A polling expert is surprised by the results of two political polls, but insists that they got their poll accurate.

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll has the National Party out in front on 44 per cent, and Labour taking a sharp dive, dropping six per cent down to 42.

It's a stark difference to the Newshub-Reid Research Poll, where Labour sits on 50.8 per cent and able to govern alone, while National hits a 14-year low at 37.4.

However, the parent company of Colmar Brunton, Kantar's CEO Jason Shoebridge, believes his poll is still accurate, factoring in the margin of error.

"Once the parties get close, then the margin of error does comes into play, and it can affect the result where it flips who's leading, basically." 

He told Heather du Plessis-Allan that they are surprised by the variance between the two polls, but says that they maintain their 

Earlier, Former Labour Party head Mike Williams told NewstalkZB the results show polls should be managed in different ways to uncover people's preferences.

"The problem is the market research industry is in crisis at the moment. Polls have not been confirmed by actual results," he said.

He pointed out international polling results have been wrong recently, from the Brexit referendum in Britain to the Australian federal election last month.

"It's difficult that landlines are dying out, it's hard to get hold of cellphone numbers, some of these people are now doing online polling," Williams said.

However, Shoebridge says that their polls are split 50 per cent between landlines and mobile phones. They were still on 100 per cent landlines, but they still got very close to election night results. 

"We were still able, through landlines, to get a pretty accurate vote," he says, but notes that they are looking at moving away from landlines. 

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