The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First. 

The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term. 

The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.

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