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Kate Hawkesby: What does Auckland Central's swing left mean for the cannabis vote?

Author
Kate Hawkesby,
Publish Date
Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 10:27AM
Photo / NZ Herald
Photo / NZ Herald

Kate Hawkesby: What does Auckland Central's swing left mean for the cannabis vote?

Author
Kate Hawkesby,
Publish Date
Tue, 20 Oct 2020, 10:27AM

I can't help wondering and actually worrying, whether the swing left in Auckland Central, the jump in votes for the Greens as a party, and the tide of support for Chloe Swarbrick, might actually tip the Cannabis vote into a yes.

The polling indicated the 'no's' had it, but look what happened on election night in terms of what the polls said and what actually happened.

I've heard the Auckland Electorate is the youngest in the country and I'll be fascinated to learn how many young voters turned out this election, because if the youth vote is larger than usual, then Cannabis may scrape through.

And if we learned anything on Saturday night, it's that dramatic swings are not only possible, they're happening.

Left wing voters are more pro a yes vote for Cannabis, young people would be more likely to vote yes, Greens and Chloe supporters would vote yes, so is it now a possibility?

One of the main polls on legalising Cannabis had 55.6 percent voting 'no', only 38.3 percent voting 'yes'.

That was according to a Reid Research poll.

But could that change? Would the undecideds go yes, would the people who initially said no change their minds?

Helen Clark produced a UMR poll commissioned by her Foundation and the NZ Drug Foundation in early October, about a week before we went to the polls, which managed to drum up results in favour of the bill. Her poll had support at 49 percent, compared to 45 percent against.

In the breakdown of that poll, Green supporters were more likely to vote yes.. 82 percent of them, Maori 66 percent yes, young people 62 percent, Labour supporters 62 percent. So basically the only people voting it down in her poll, were National supporters and older people. And we know how many National supporters there are currently - not many!

So could her poll, despite being out of step with the other two main polls, actually be the most accurate?

The Drug Foundations' Ross Bell has said that polls are not a good indicator of results, he cites US examples, when it comes to cannabis. He said in Colorado and Washington, cannabis was passed by a wider margin than in polls, because some people are apparently reluctant to tell pollsters what they really think.

Frustratingly we won't know for another couple of weeks, I have no idea why it takes so long to count votes, but it does, so the wait is on. But at this point, I would not be surprised at all, if it tips the way of the yes voters.

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