As you know I’ve been saying for some time this election is National’s to lose. 

The economy will pick up, this government’s only two years in and kiwis like to give incumbents the benefit of the doubt.

I still think this holds true. But, as we’ve been reporting since April, Trump’s tariffs - which took everybody (including the markets) by surprise, making a bear of a bull - hammered business and consumer confidence just as we were showing signs of those green shoots the pundits love talking about.

This has shortened Luxon’s window for a real economic recovery, which is the platform he’s relying on for re-election.

Talk of a leadership coup by Christmas is in my view daft. 

Any National MP who thinks they can outpoll Luxon in the current climate’s got to be dreaming. A short-term bump, maybe.

But there are political costs - namely - instability. Remember Muller?

Then this newly elected Leader must go to Winston and David and no doubt relitigate all and sundry just as the later begin firing up for a showdown.

Winston and Shane were in full flight at the weekend. And it’s only September 2025.

Timing is everything and that’s Luxon’s card to play - in 12 months from now the country will (likely) feel a much different place to live.

That means a late election. If National are smart they’ll stick with the devil they know and wait for brighter days ahead.

The risks outweigh the benefits at this point in the cycle. 

If needs be, a transition can happen in pretty short order… Jacinda Ardern is proof of that.