The housing market is once again in the driver's seat for the economy, but it's not heading in the direction we're used to. 

Yes, a recovery is underway. 

But the brutal truth of 2025 was summed up rather well, I thought, by Sir Bill English in an interview about the current state of play. 

Basically, this protracted downturn - which for anyone living outside Queenstown or living on dairy farm has felt as drawn out and depressing as a Covid lockdown - has been made worse by the housing market.

It's not firing back into life like it usually would at this stage of the cycle. 

The wealth effect hasn't kicked in. The recovery's taken longer. 

In the long run, English argues, this is a good thing. Because supply has been coming on, planning laws are being changed, intensification will keep prices low or in some cases, see them fall. 

Does this make it any easier to stomach? No? Is he right? Probably. 

If it's happening, this structural shift is going to create headaches for anyone relying on property to boom in order to get rich. 

Like. um I don't know, Hipkins and Labour. 

They were out at the weekend, making in rain cash, this time on GP clinics who apparently get bank loans to start practices which are effectively licenses to print money. 

Like the free GP visits for billionaires and the rest of us, the policy relies on revenue from a capital gains tax. 

What if those gains don't happen, or the happen but not to the extent they assume they will? 

What if the gains look more of the sort we've seen over the past few years i.e. nil or losses? 

Then what? What's that old saying about your mouth writing cheques your ass can't cash?

Without those golden-year capital increases, it won't just be the economy feeling their loss, but politicians with big spending agendas also.