Can you trust Winston Peters not go with Labour next year?

No you can’t. 

He hasn’t ruled it out.

Despite National scoring a higher party vote in 2017, he went with Jacinda.

Labour has not ruled Winston out. Winston has not ruled Labour out. Winston has ruled Chippie, so leadership swap in the last 7 weeks of the campaign, or even during negotiations, is possible. 

Hipkins is a party man and if the choice was opposition for his caucus or the Treasury benches, he’d fall on his sword.

So it’s a live scenario. 

Is Labour and NZF get enough to form a coalition together, wouldn’t he prefer that to another threesome on the right?

He hates Chippy cause of COVID and his ‘what is a woman’ malfunction in that press conference. 

But the party’s been working hard to shake the overly wokey/dopey vibes since then.

Also. He hates Seymour. 

And if there was a chance for him to extract big spending policies, some regional fund, manufacturing energy deals and more gold card benefits. I reckon he’d go for it.

The scenario becomes much less likely if the Greens and whatever might be left of TPM need to prop them up.

He hates them much more than Seymour and would look stupid going into government with a green handshake and a hongi.

The rule with Winston is pretty simple. All options are on the table and this time next year, as summer approaches and the weather warms, we will be doing stake outs at his beach house and his crowbar villa in central Auckland.

Waiting outside, microphones ready, guessing who the patron saint of kiwi politics will anoint to lead the country.