The gangs were right, the Government was wrong.  

That’s one way to interpret the news that, for the first time, the number of people on the national gang list is higher than 10,000.  

The gangs were right. Because they said right from the outset that the Government could do what it wants but they will never go away.  

And the numbers don’t lie, do they?  

At the time of the 2023 election, there were 9,270 people on the national gang list. Now there are 10,009 – an increase of more than 700.  

Which is why, as well as saying the gangs were right, you could also say that the Government was wrong. I think it’s too early, but I think we need to change our expectations a little bit. Which I’ll come back to.  

Labour is crowing, of course. But before Ginny Andersen and Chris Hipkins get too carried away, they need to remember that when Labour came to power in 2017 there were 5,343 people on the gang list and by the time the 2023 election came around, that had increased by nearly 4,000.  

So Police Minister Mark Mitchell —who has been the face of the gang patch ban and all of the other anti-gang initiatives— is correct when he says that the numbers aren’t increasing as fast as they were.   

And he says that slower rate of growth is proof that the Government's tough-on-crime policies are working. The Prime Minister is backing that up, saying the Government is "smashing the gangs".  

He’s saying: "I'm proud of the progress that we've made. Putting the gang patches ban in place – many people said that couldn't be done."  

Assistant police commissioner Paul Basham is singing from the same songsheet. Saying that because the Government has given the police more power and resources, they’ve got a better handle on gang numbers and illegal gang activity.  

Nevertheless, with numbers rising, what should happen next?  

Do we accept that we’re never going to stop gang numbers growing? Do we go harder?  Or do we give the Government more time for its crackdown to work?   

I’m prepared to give the Government a little bit more time. But I think we also need to adjust our expectations and forget about any idea of gang numbers falling dramatically. 

Because there will always be gangs. But if the police have a better handle on what they’re doing and —because of that— those of us not involved in gangs feel safer, then that’s a good outcome in my book.