The myth of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strategic genius is quickly disintegrating.

This according to the director of a documentary focusing on a man who Putin tried to kill.

Canadian filmmaker Daniel Roher spent a year documenting the recovery and political struggle of Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who was poisoned by agents from Russia's Federal Security Service.

In response to the allegations of Russian involvement, Putin infamously said that if he had tried to poison Navalny he would have succeeded.

It's a clear example of the strongman bravado we've come to expect from Putin, but Roher offered a different perspective on the Front Page podcast.

"It's just another example of Putin's profound and endless well of incompetence," said the filmmaker behind the Navalny documentary.

"Not only did they not finish him off, but they failed spectacularly. And then some moron from Putin's security services, the successor agency to his beloved KGB, told Alexei [Navalny] the entire plot on a prank phone call."

Roher is referring here to a stunning moment in his film in which a Russian agent inadvertently gives a play-by-play rundown of how they went about trying to kill Navalny.

"Putin was blustering and thumping his chest, but I think he is creating for himself an alternate reality. And it's the same reality we see playing out in Ukraine."

Despite the size and strength of the Russian military, Ukraine has managed to hold the occupiers at bay and even take back large parts of the country in recent skirmishes. There is a growing sense that Ukraine may, in fact, end up winning this war in what would be a humiliating defeat for Putin.

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"The war in Ukraine is perhaps the greatest geopolitical blunder certainly of this century so far," says Roher.

"It's definitely up there."

Roher says this has contributed to the disintegration of the long-held myth that Putin is a strategic mastermind - a myth largely attributed to Putin taking credit for stabilising a country that had long been unstable.

"Domestically, he has been able to create the myth and veneer of his own success by improving economic conditions, but, in this moment in history, more than any other, we can see through that veneer with vivid clarity."

Internally, Russian officials have tried to maintain a sense of normality despite the sheer number of casualties the country's army is suffering in Ukraine.

"The Kremlin is working very hard to cultivate a business as normal sensibility in Russia. Most of the dead don't come from Moscow and St Petersburg. Most Russian soldiers who have died in this conflict come from the outer reaches of the furthest regions of the country. Most Russians living in Moscow and St Petersburg don't have a full understanding of what is going on."

However, even these myths are now starting to waver under the growing realisation of the massive mistake Putin has made in attacking Ukraine.

"There are many individuals from Boris Nemstov to Vladimir Kara-Murza to Alexei Navalny who have been the canary in the coal mine, speaking out against this regime and advocating for regime change in Russia. Navalny's unquestioning bravery and decision to go back and his unrelenting campaign against this regime is among not just the loudest by the most effective."

Navalny currently remains imprisoned in Russia as the war in Ukraine rages on, with little indication that he will eventually be released.

But with increased discontent about the war and Putin's mythology being stripped back, there is a growing hope that Russia may see progressive change eventually.

"This egregious war, the war crimes being committed, the incompetence of the Russian army, the lack of any strategic insight is exposing both to the world and to the Russian public the full incompetence of this regime. I think it's just a matter of time before there is change in Russia, and I certainly hope that it happens sooner than later."

• The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am.
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