The Trump Administration is pointing to the woes of America’s aviation system to ratchet up pressure on Democrats to reopen the United States Government as the shutdown enters its second month.

An estimated 700,000 federal workers are considered essential and must work without pay while the Government is closed.

Even though air traffic controllers make up less than 2% of that group, their plight has received extra attention.

Vice-President JD Vance warned on Friday NZT that the flight disruptions rippling throughout the system could worsen if stressed-out controllers and other key frontline aviation workers stop reporting for work.

“Look, it could be a disaster,” he said when asked about the potential impact the shutdown could have on Thanksgiving travel plans.

“It really could be because … you’re talking about people have missed three pay cheques. They’ve missed four pay cheques. How many of them are not going to show up for work?”

Controllers missed their first pay cheque this past week.

“Everybody here is very worried that we’re going to see more delays, more stresses on the people who are actually making the aviation system run and more problems for both the consumers, but also the great workers who actually make this incredible shining jewel of the American economy actually work,” Vance said.

So far, however, the impact of the shutdown has been relatively muted.

Earlier in the week, at a news conference at LaGuardia Airport, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy conceded there have been fewer disruptions than during the last government shutdown.

But he argued that the aviation system remains fragile, short of 3000 controllers for what it needs.

Data from Cirium, an aviation analytics company, found that performance during the first few weeks of the shutdown was average to above average, with little change at major US airports. When disruptions did occur, they were more likely tied to weather in the Northeast, the company said.

The number of flight disruptions linked to understaffing has varied widely.

For example, on October 7, about 53% of delays were linked to staffing shortages, but the next day, that number dropped to only 4%, according to data from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Before the shutdown, Duffy said, an average of 5% of delays were caused by staffing issues.

More generally, airlines have been fortunate in that the shutdown occurred during a traditionally slow period for airlines and that October weather has been relatively mild, analysts say.

“This is a time when airlines normally reduce the number of flights they operate due to the lower seasonal demand,” said Henry Harteveldt, an aviation analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group.

In recent earnings calls, several airlines said they planned to reduce their autumn and winter flying to keep supply tighter and avoid having to cut prices, he added.

Airlines have also likely done contingency planning given this isn’t the first time they’ve had a government shutdown, he said.

Another factor is that airlines have invested in technology and taken lessons learned during the pandemic to strengthen their operations and improve their resilience, said Chris Sununu, chief executive of the airline trade group Airlines for America.

He also credited the FAA with putting strategies in place to adapt more quickly to disruptions.

Still, staffing shortages at key airports this week, including one at Los Angeles International over the weekend and several more at Washington’s Reagan National and Chicago’s O’Hare International, have made headlines.

And there are some indications the system might be growing increasingly strained.

Friday was the first indication of a broader, systemwide slowdown, according to Cirium. Data showed an uptick in cancellations at the three major New York-area airports as well as Boston’s Logan International. Disruptions at major airports can quickly cascade through the broader aviation system.