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Where can Putin go if Russia loses?

Author
news.com.au,
Publish Date
Sun, 31 Jul 2022, 12:25PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo / AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo / AP

Where can Putin go if Russia loses?

Author
news.com.au,
Publish Date
Sun, 31 Jul 2022, 12:25PM

New reports have ignited theories that there are plans for Vladimir Putin to flee Russia, should his war against Ukraine fail.

According to the Russian Telegram channel, General SVR, Putin is "aware of the possibility of a sharp change of mood in the country".

"Defeat in the war for the President of Russia will mean the end of his power and the regimen as a whole," states the Telegram channel, which claims to publish tip-offs from "retired and active intelligence agents".

Should Putin flee Russia and seek refuge elsewhere, there are only a handful of likely candidates, drawn from countries that have publicly supported his war on Ukraine.

They include Belarus (whose leader Alexander Lukashenko is one of Putin's closest allies), Myanmar, Venezuela and Syria (whose dictator Bashar al-Assad survived a civil war with Russian support despite using chemical weapons on his own people).

In March, a spokesman for Myanmar's junta, Zaw Min Tun, publicly supported Putin's actions in Ukraine.

"No. 1 is that Russia has worked to consolidate its sovereignty. I think this is the right thing to do. No. 2 is to show the world that Russia is a world power," the spokesman said, as reported by Myanmar Now.

Similar rhetoric was also espoused by Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who condemned the "destabilising actions of the United States and Nato".

Another option could be Iran. In late July, Putin made a rare visit to its capital Tehran, during which he met with supreme leader Ali Khamenei as well as the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan.

During the diplomatic event, Khamenei said: "If you [Russia] had not taken the initiative, the other side would have caused the war with its own initiative."

Writing for The Conversation, Scott Lucas, a Professor of International Politics at the University of Birmingham, said Russia and Iran's relationship had sprung up from the "convergence of interests at a time of crisis for each country", calling it a "pact of the isolated".

While Syria is another option, for Putin to fly there, Turkey would need to permit him to use its airspace.

Although Russia and Turkey currently have a civil relationship, their two leaders have been at odds in the past.

"Will #Turkey let the planes with #Putin, his family and those who will join fly to #Syria?" the Telegram channel asks.

"In principle, it is beneficial for #Iran and Turkey to keep the Russian president in exile in reserve, using him, depending on the situation, as a lever or as a bargaining chip."

While Chechnya is part of the republic of Russia, its leader Ramzan Kadyrov is also one of Putin's key allies. The small Muslim republic has been providing military support since the early days of the Ukraine invasion.

Putin suffering from 'severe nausea'

This comes as rumours about Putin's supposed ailing health intensify.

On Monday, General SVR claimed the President was suffering from "severe nausea", which required medical attention.

"Putin on the night of Friday, July 22 to Saturday, July 23 needed urgent medical care," said the channel.

"At about 1 am, the medical workers on duty at [his] residence were summoned to the president.

Ramzan Kadyrov is a staunch supporter of Putin. Photo / Getty

Ramzan Kadyrov is a staunch supporter of Putin. Photo / Getty

The Channel also said that doctors were with Putin for three hours and left after the "President's condition improved".

Comments have also been made about the 70-year-old's appearance, with him seeming weaker, and rumours that he may be undergoing cancer treatment or suffering from Parkinson's.

Recently, during the St Petersburg Economic Forum, onlookers noted Putin was constantly squirming and fidgeting in his seat and was unable to remain still.

While the claims are sensational, they have been largely unfounded. Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum in late July, America's CIA director William Burns threw cold water on the rumours, while adding that his words were "not a formal intelligence judgment".

"There are lots of rumours about President Putin's health and as far as we can tell, he's entirely too healthy," he said.

The Kremlin also insists the President is in good health.

- Jessica Wang, news.com.au

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