Brisbane, Australia CNN āĀ The UNESCO World Heritage Committee has decided not to add the Great Barrier Reef to its list of sites āin danger,ā despite overwhelming scientific evidence that suggests itās at risk of another mass bleaching this coming summer ā and scientists are questioning why.
At its meeting in Paris on Monday, the committee said theĀ Australian government had made āsignificant progressāĀ but the reef remains under āserious threatā fromĀ climate changeĀ and pollution.
The committee added thatĀ āsustained action to implement the priority recommendations of the mission is essential in order to improve (its) long-term resilience,ā and asked the government to report back with an update by February 1 ā at the height of the Australian summer.
But scientists say thereās little prospect of radical improvement just six months from now, especially as climate forecasters say the arrival ofĀ El NiƱo, a natural climate fluctuation which typically has a warming impact, will likely make oceans even hotter.
āA lot of climate scientists are shocked by the fact that it wasnāt put on the list,ā Kimberley Reid from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Monash University told CNN.
āCurrent global emissions policies put us on track for about 2.7 degrees (Celsius). So, with our current policies and current emissions, weāre very clearly on track to see at least a 99% decline in global coral reefs, and if that doesnāt scream the reefās in danger, then Iām not sure what will,ā said Reid.
Covering nearly 133,000 square miles (345,000 square kilometers), the Great Barrier Reef is home to more than 1,500 species of fish and 411 species of hard corals. It contributes billions of dollars to the Australian economy each year, and is promoted heavily to foreign tourists as one of the countryās ā and the worldās ā greatest natural wonders.
Since the World Heritage Committee firstĀ raised the possibility of an āin dangerā rating in 2021, successive Australian governments have been working hard to convince the committee that they are diligent custodians.
Environment minister Tanya Plibersek told reporters Tuesday she made no apology for lobbying UNESCO to keep the Great Barrier Reef off the āin dangerā list.
āLobbying is about telling the truth about what weāre doing,ā said Plibersek, listing off the Labor governmentās major environmental policies since coming to power in 2022, including spending millions of dollars on improving water quality and reef management,Ā as well as measures to reduce planet-heating pollution including setting emissions targets and electrifying homes.
Bleaching events and global warming have done significant damage to the Great Barrier Reef. Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post/Getty Images
āSome recoveryā but more work needed
Under the previous government, the Great Barrier Reef suffered severe mass bleaching in 2016, 2017 and 2020,Ā caused by hotter ocean temperatures as the world continues to burn planet-heating fossil fuels.
Another bleaching event in 2022Ā ā the first during a La NiƱa event, El NiƱoās counterpart, which tends to have a cooling influence ā raised serious concerns about its outlook and the countryās management plans.
In Mondayās draft decision, the committee said the reef had experienced āsome recoveryā since the last bleaching event and that populations of a number of key species were increasing or stable.
The committee also noted its āappreciationā for the governmentās recent actions, but said more needed to be done to improve water quality and to āstrengthen the Reef 2050 Plan to include clear government commitments to reduce greenhouse emissions.ā
Plibersek said the government was well aware more work needed to be done, to protect not only the reef but the thousands of Australians whose jobs rely on it.
āNo-one needs to tell Australia to look after the reef today. No-one takes protecting the reef more seriously. I am pleased thatās been acknowledged by the international community,ā Plibersek said.
Tourists, divers and marine biologists enter and exit the waters of the Great Barrier Reef on August 10, 2022 on Hastings Reef, Australia. Michael Robinson Chavez/The Washington Post/Getty Images
But scientists pointed out that the reefās outlook is unlikely to improve between now and February 1, the deadline for the government to issue another progress update.
āThe UNESCO update on the Great Barrier has kicked the can down the road ā delaying the next assessment on listing the Reef as āin dangerā by another year,ā said Terry Hughes, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, in a written statement.
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said the arrival of El NiƱo was ālikely in the coming weeks,ā though the USĀ National Oceanic Atmospheric AdministrationĀ (NOAA) and theĀ World Meteorological OrganizationĀ have already announced its arrival.
āAs El NiƱo conditions strengthen once more, itās very likely weāll see another mass bleaching event next summer, just after the report is written,ā Hughes said.
David Booth, professor of Marine Ecology at UTS and president of the Australian Coral Reef Society, pointed out the apparent contradiction between the governmentās stated efforts to protect the reef and its recent approval for new fossil fuel projects.
According to theĀ Australia Instituteās Coal Mine Tracker,Ā the government has approved three new coal mines or expansions since coming to power in May 2022.
āWill the Federal Government finally face up to reality and stop all coal and gas production and export ā especially new gas developments such as the Adani field? It is almost too late to save the Reef, along with its huge tourism and fishing industries,ā said Booth in a statement.
Jodie Rummer, a professor of Marine Biology at James Cook University, said the āin dangerā listing was āirrelevant,ā and the world needs to face up to the severe threat that accelerated climate change poses to the Great Barrier Reef and others worldwide.
āWe need to phase down the use of fossil fuels. We have to replace them as quickly as possible this decade,ā she told CNN.
āThatās whatās going to make the single biggest difference in how these extreme events these marine heat waves will be faced both now and into the future.ā
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