• Cardinals entered the Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope, succeeding Pope Francis who died in April. 
• The conclave, involving 133 cardinals, will debate issues such as divorce, clergy abuse, and LGBTQ+ topics. 
• Front-runners for pope include Pietro Parolin, Peter Turkson, and Luis Tagle, with diverse views and backgrounds. 

Black smoke, signifying no pope, has emerged from the Sistine Chapel in the first decision of the conclave to elect a new pope. 

Roman Catholic cardinals from across the globe have entered the Sistine Chapel to choose a new pope, who will set the moral compass for the Church’s 1.4 billion faithful and become a reference point for much of the world. 

The closed-door election, known as a conclave, began this morning (NZT) when the 133 elector cardinals were locked into the chapel to begin the voting process aimed at finding a successor to Pope Francis, who died in April. They will have no contact with the outside world and will not be allowed to leave until they reach an agreement. 

Church traditionalists will debate their more progressive colleagues on where the new pope should stand on topics including divorce, sexual abuse by clergy, and LGBTQ+ issues. Geopolitics are also likely front of mind, with a Vatican statement this week saying cardinals bemoaned the lack of progress in peace talks on Ukraine and the Middle East. 

Once the conclave reaches its decision – signalled by a plume of white smoke from the Vatican roof – the announcement of a new pontiff, from a balcony overlooking St Peter’s Square, will be closely watched by governments and faithful alike given the Catholic Church‘s considerable sway around the world. 

The papal conclave begins with a single ballot on the first day and then four rounds of voting each day until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote. 

In theory, the deliberations could take weeks, or even longer – one in 1268 lasted three years. However, recent elections for Pope Francis and his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI were resolved within a few days, with Francis elected on the fifth ballot and Benedict on the fourth. 

This conclave is set to be all the more challenging as Pope Francis expanded the number of cardinal electors, those under the age of 80, to 133 from 70 countries compared with 115 cardinals from 48 countries when he was elected. The large number and diversity of participants means a plethora of views and needs will come into play, potentially making it harder to find an agreement. 

The traditions connected to the conclave date back to the 13th century when the papacy was an important player in European politics and major powers would vie to influence the outcome. To defend the independence of the cardinals, the secret ballot has been maintained and they will not be allowed to use phones, read papers, watch television or have any other contact that could sway them. 

It’s a different scene outside the Vatican, however. Where people have gathered in St Peter’s Square in Rome, and will continue to gather twice a day to await the results, watching a small smokestack installed over the Vatican rooftops which will emit black smoke twice a day until a decision has been made. 

The smoke comes from the ballot papers, which are burned after each vote. Potassium perchlorate, a tar-derived hydrocarbon known as anthracene, and sulphur are burned to produce black smoke, while a mixture of potassium chlorate, lactose and rosin are used for the white smoke, according to the Holy See’s head of press. 

Even after the smoke appears, the faithful will be left guessing who the new pope will be until the words “Habemus Papam” or “we have a Pope” ring out across the square pronounced from the papal balcony, followed by the name of the new pontiff who will then address the people below. 

Named as potential successors to the papacy are, top from left, Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi; Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdory; Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu; Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson; Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech; (middle from left) Italian Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa; French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline; Italian Vatican's Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin; Swedish cardinal Anders Arborelius; Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle; (bottom from left) Italian Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti; US Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost; Burmese Cardinal Charles Maung Bo; Luxembourgish Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerichl US Cardinal Timothy Dolan. AFP Photo / Various sources 

Top contenders 

High-profile cardinals considered front-runners include Pietro Parolin, an Italian who serves as the Vatican’s secretary of state and is known for his diplomatic skills. 

Peter Turkson, a Ghanaian known for relatively liberal views on social justice and human rights, could also be considered, as could Philippine-born Luis Tagle, an advocate for enhanced inclusivity. Turkson would be the first African Pope, if elected, and Tagle the first from Asia. 

On the other end of the political spectrum, Raymond Leo Burke, a one-time archbishop of St Louis and an ardent critic of Francis, is also seen as someone who could make the cut. Burke would be the first ever US-born pope if he were to be named Francis’ successor. 

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has pointed to the archbishop of New York, Timothy Dolan, as his choice for the papacy, but he is currently not considered likely to get the nod from his fellow cardinals. 

Trump drew fierce criticism from Catholics including Dolan however, after posting an AI-generated image of himself dressed as pope. 

Dolan, who is in Rome for the conclave, told reporters doorstepping him outside a church that Trump’s AI image “wasn’t good”. 

For those with a real shot at the papacy, based on historical precedent, the process of selecting a new pontiff is likely to be highly unpredictable. 

UK bookmaker William Hill has odds of 12/5 for Parolin, 11/4 for Tagle, and 5/1 for Turkson. Their list of top names also includes continuity candidate Matteo Zuppi known for his humanitarian efforts, including a peace mission in Ukraine, and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, a Franciscan who is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. On the more conservative side, the bookmakers see odds of 8/1 for Hungarian Peter Erdo. 

The conclave began with the Latin words “extra omnes” or “everyone out” shouted by the master of liturgical ceremonies. Now, the final decision is up to the cardinals and each man’s conscience as they cast votes in the shadow of Michelangelo’s fresco of the Last Judgment.