International airlines expect to transport a record 5.2 billion passengers in 2026 despite global headwinds affecting the sector, the industry’s trade association said.

Carriers also expect higher profits than previously forecast for 2025, and predict earnings at a comparable level next year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) added.

The IATA, which groups around 360 carriers representing 80% of global air traffic, said 2025 profits are projected to reach US$39.5 billion ($68b), up from the US$36b it predicted at the body’s annual general meeting in June.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said the improved performance was “welcome news considering the headwinds the industry faces”.

He said challenges included rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade and growing regulatory burdens.

Walsh attributed the improved outlook to air freight’s better performance, achieved despite trade disputes triggered by US tariffs.

“Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,” he was quoted as saying in an IATA statement.

Profits in 2026 are projected at US$41b, with persistent aircraft availability problems putting a cap on performance, the IATA said.

Profitability projections differ markedly, however, between regions. Middle East-based airlines are expected to register a net profit per passenger of around US$28.60, compared with US$10.90 in Europe, US$9.80 in North America, US$3.20 in the Asia-Pacific and US$1.30 in Africa.

Global passenger numbers this year are expected to be just shy of the five-billion figure, at 4.98 billion, up from 4.77 billion in 2024, the previous record figure.

– Agence France-Presse