This is it, then. As the Formula One grid arrives in Mexico, Liam Lawson does so knowing this weekend will be his last to impress Red Bull in his bid to keep his Racing Bulls seat in 2026.

Across both of its two teams, Red Bull has just one driver’s future confirmed beyond the end of this year.

World champion Max Verstappen will not be going anywhere, given his contract with the team runs until the end of 2028. The other three seats, though, are up for grabs.

Yuki Tsunoda’s time as Verstappen’s teammate is all but confirmed to be at an end. The Japanese driver’s place at Red Bull has always been linked to engine supplier Honda.

But with Honda to depart and join Aston Martin in 2026, Lawson’s Racing Bulls teammate Isack Hadjar is widely tipped to take that job from Tsunoda.

However, given Tsunoda’s relationship with Red Bull chief executive Laurent Mekies, there would be potential for him to move back down to Racing Bulls, where he raced for four years before this year’s promotion.

Liam Lawson at Formula One's US Grand Prix. Photo / Red Bull

Given Red Bull’s eagerness to promote junior driver Arvid Lindblad from Formula Two into a Racing Bulls seat, though, that final position effectively comes down to Lawson v Tsunoda.

Red Bull senior adviser Dr Helmut Marko has indicated that any decisions over driver lineups will be made at the end of October. That, then, leaves this weekend’s Mexican Grand Prix as the last chance Lawson and Tsunoda have to impress.

Naturally, that kind of pressure would take its toll on any driver. Red Bull’s stable, though, are more than used to it.

Last year saw Lawson and Tsunoda have to wait until the end of the season at Abu Dhabi to learn where they’d drive in 2025. This time around, as Red Bull front foots the issue, one of them will end the year knowing they’re out of the sport once the season ends.

And while Lawson himself admits clarity would be beneficial for all involved, his focus for the weekend remains the same.

“If it was something that was clear and the decision was made, we probably would know,” Lawson said. “Maybe that would be better.

“At the same time, it doesn’t change how we approach each weekend. At the moment, we’re still waiting on everything that’s going to happen.

Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda. Photo / Red Bull

“Our approaches will stay the same in trying to extract everything out of each weekend.”

Keeping his seat for 2026 would allow Lawson to – theoretically – experience a full Formula One season without disruption.

His debut in 2023 came in the form of just five grands prix, as an injury replacement for Daniel Ricciardo. Then, last year saw him sidelined until the last six races, when Ricciardo was sacked by Racing Bulls.

Those six races led to Lawson being promoted to Red Bull at the expense of both Tsunoda and Sergio Perez. Two races into 2025, though, Lawson was demoted after struggling to come to terms with Red Bull’s RB21 car.

But returning to Racing Bulls has been a blessing in disguise for the Kiwi. His 17 races for Red Bull’s sister side have returned 30 points, including a career-best finish of fifth in Azerbaijan last month.

With five grands prix remaining, Lawson holds a two-point lead over Tsunoda in the drivers standings, in an inferior car.

Asked if he believes he’s done enough to keep his job next year, though, Lawson says while it’s been a steep learning curve, he has earned the right to continue.

“Hindsight is amazing,” he explained. “You always look back on stuff you’ve done, and learn from things.

“We’re not perfect, I’m definitely not perfect. There’s things over a season that I’ll look back on and learn from.

“But that’s the main thing. As long as I look back on those mistakes, I learn from them and try not to do them again, that’s the most important thing.

“From that side, I feel like I’ve done everything that I can, and I’ll continue doing that.”

Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.