All Blacks v Argentina: Our prediction for the semifinal

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Author: NZ Herald,
Publish Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2023, 1:51PM

The semifinals are set after Johnny Sexton and the world’s top-ranked team were beaten by a New Zealand side unrecognisable from their opening-match defeat, in one of the greatest matches in World Cup history. Argentina came from behind twice to beat Wales and reach their third Rugby World Cup semifinal earlier that morning.

Beating Ireland was an insurmountable task the last 17 times the Irish took the field, until the All Blacks halted one of the great modern unbeaten runs in Paris.

In doing so, they told the rugby world that they can never be counted out and, as World Cup history stands, they are the most successful at emerging victorious when the stakes are at their highest. Working against them in that regard are what can only be described as capitulations in 2003 and 2019, in which they lost semifinals they were favoured to win.

Argentina offer a genuine obstacle in New Zealand’s path to the final but, at eighth in the world rankings, they sit just outside the “tier 1″ of Tier 1 nations. Ian Foster’s side will not take Los Pumas as easy-beats and nor should they – reaching a World Cup semifinal is reason enough to be taken seriously.

It would be a bold call, however, to assume much more than a starter’s chance for Argentina to emerge victorious. Their historic win over the All Blacks in Christchurch was followed by a 50-point revenge defeat and New Zealand gave them a further 41-12 licking in the Rugby Championship earlier this year. Argentina will cling to 2022, though, and rightly so.

Los Pumas’ best chance of emerging as World Cup finalists is if they replicate that Christchurch performance and hope the All Blacks also repeat their clunky, ill-disciplined outing. Working in their favour that time was the fact New Zealand had just lost to Ireland in back-to-back tests. This time around the All Blacks have just beaten Ireland in one of the greatest 80 minutes in their already-rich World Cup history.

History

The teams have met 36 times. The All Blacks have won 33 times, with the Pumas winning two and one match drawn. The most recent fixture was won 41-12 by New Zealand.

Squads

New Zealand: Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Mark Tele’a, Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith; Ardie Savea, Sam Cane (captain), Shannon Frizell, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock, Tyrel Lomax, Codie Taylor, Ethan de Groot. Reserves: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Fletcher Newell, Brodie Retallick, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown.

Argentina: Juan Cruz Mallia, Emiliano Boffelli, Lucio Cinti, Santiago Chocobares, Mateo Carreras, Santiago Carreras, Gonzalo Bertranou; Facundo Isa, Marcos Kremer, Juan Martin Gonzalez, Tomas Lavanini, Guido Petti, Francisco Gómez Kodela, Julian Montoya (captain), Thomas Gallo. Reserves: Agustín Creevy, Joel Sclavi, Eduardo Bello, Matias Alemanno, Rodrigo Bruni, Lautaro Bazan Velez, Nicolas Sanchez, Matías Moroni.