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Where optimism may lie within bleak economic forecasts

Publish Date
Fri, 22 Mar 2024, 2:38pm

Where optimism may lie within bleak economic forecasts

Publish Date
Fri, 22 Mar 2024, 2:38pm

Treasury and the Reserve Bank are forecasting growth this year, the Finance Minister has assured, despite double-dip recession blues gripping the economy.

New Zealand was confirmed to have entered recession on Thursday as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.1 per cent in the December 2023 quarter, compared with the September quarter, which also shrank.

Economists traditionally define a recession as two successive quarters in which the economy contracts.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis admitted on the Mike Hosking Breakfast this morning the growth forecast had taken a big hit, with the Government feeling a little more pessimistic about the future - knowing revenue will be decreased, which makes balancing the books harder.

Willis even joked in response to a question whether her head fell into her hands when she saw the latest GDP number.

"I get a series of progressive updates every few weeks from the forecast, so it's more a slow drooping of the head than one dramatic movement," she told Hosking.

However, turning her attention to Q1 of 2024, Willis said there was still hope for the coming year, claiming Treasury and the Reserve Bank expected economic growth in the near future.

"What I would say is across the economy, I think there are patches that are really tough. When I talk to people in retail, in hospitality, parts of the manufacturing sector you are seeing they're finding it very challenging," she said.

"But you're right, there are also people in tourism saying those numbers are back up. We are seeing that is coming back in a big way and that's helpful, you are still seeing the dairy price this week was okay and the possibility Fonterra is up - so like anything, there's good and bad around."

Willis said her job as Government was to remove red tape and make sensible investments into ensuring businesses could feel more confident about hiring staff.

Hosking asked if the economy was in as bad a shape as during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 - but Willis was eager not to sensationalise the state of play.

"Most are worrying about these numbers and people focus on the headlines and recession with the GDP - but that has happened despite very fast-growing immigration and population," she said.

"So on a per capita, or per person basis, the economy has barely grown in several years and that is a real worry."

Willis said people often forget during discussions about government spending that you can't spend money without earning it, and that improving the economy was critical to allow better spending.

She said her government was focused on productivity, regulation, infrastructure, trade and investment.

"Ultimately, if we don't grow this pie then we're not gonna be able to divide it any better."

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